Global shortages of middle distillates such as diesel, gas oil and heating oil are intensifying rather than easing, making it more likely a relatively severe slowdown in the business cycle will be necessary to rebalance the market. U.S. inventories of distillate fuel oil depleted to 106 million barrels on Oct. 7, the lowest seasonal level
Comment: Diesel’s gloomy message for the global economy
The only way to rebalance supply and demand is more supply or a deep recession
Comment: Commodity prices likely to be hit by slowdown before end of 2023
The current price expansion is already getting a bit long in the tooth
Reuters – Prices for a wide range of commodities have climbed to their highest level for seven years or more as drillers, miners and farmers struggle to keep up with booming demand as the economy recovers from the pandemic. Energy prices are at the highest level since 2014 while non-energy prices are the strongest since
Comment: Global economy hit by severest shock since 1930s
Fast policy response necessary to reduce impact of secondary rounds
Reuters – Recessions often start with a small drop in activity which then progressively deepens over subsequent months as the second- and higher-round effects on the economy start to occur. But the current business cycle downturn looks very different. In terms of its scale and sudden onset, there is no parallel since the end of
Opinion: U.S. and China stumble into Thucydides Trap
The United States and China have fired the opening shots in a trade war that may be hard to stop. The United States has appeared eager to impose tariffs to create leverage and force China into concessions on the bilateral trade deficit, intellectual property protection and forced technology transfer. For its part, China has appeared
El Niño conditions are developing in the Pacific
We know La Niña and El Niño both have an effect on weather — but predicting it is still a real challenge
El Niño conditions are developing across the Pacific with an increasing probability that a full-fledged El Niño episode will occur during the second half of 2017. Pacific equatorial winds have slackened since the start of the year and a characteristic tongue of warm water has begun to form stretching from Peru towards the international dateline.
Kemp: Commodity markets will go dark if U.S. shutdown continues
If the U.S. government shutdown continues for more than a few days, commodity markets will find themselves flying blind, as the public servants responsible for producing statistics on which traders and investors rely are sent home. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said Tuesday it will not publish the commitments of traders and other market
Price bubbles and commodity markets
Athoughtful new paper from researchers at the University of Illinois marks a significant step forward in research on how commodity futures prices are formed. Until recently, the academic and policy debate about futures price formation has been locked in an acrimonious and polarized standoff between market fundamentalists, who insist all price moves reflect supply-and-demand fundamentals,
Giving clean energy an affordable makeover
Political will to tackle climate change by curbing greenhouse gas emissions, never very strong, has all but disappeared across much of North America and Western Europe in the last 12 months. Climate concerns have fallen victim to the recession, with fears about jobs, growth and the cost of switching to clean energy undermining support for
Lower Grain Price And Fuel Prices Needed
Sharp declines in prices for grains and gasoline will be the most effective stimulus for renewed growth, by easing the squeeze on household finances across North America and Western Europe, but only if price cuts can be sustained. Relative declines in prices for food, clothing and fuel have been one of the big drivers of
Mind The Global Output Gap
Escalating food and fuel prices are a sign the global economy is approaching full resource utilization and the limits of sustainable output. Policy-makers, commentators and investors are still fiercely debating whether high unemployment and idle factories in the United States and Europe are caused by cyclical lack of demand (in which case Keynesian demand management
Cyber-Savvy Farmer
