Weather: Riding the fall temperature roller-coaster

Forecast issued October 7, covering the period from October 12 to October 19, 2022

Those of you who follow my forecasts know a couple of things about them. One, I need to be general, since I create a weeklong forecast with a lead time of five days. Two, weather forecasting is tough no matter when, but fall and spring are hardest because they can bring wild swings in the

Will the warm dry September weather continue?

Manitoba’s September turned out warmer than average, particularly around Dauphin

No matter which way you look at it, climatological or astronomical, we are well into fall. From a climatological point of view, the first month of fall has come and gone and to me it seems like a blur. It is already time to do a monthly look back at the weather across our great


Weather: Warm temps to return by Thanksgiving

Forecast issued September 30, covering the period from October 5 to October 12, 2022

There were two concerns with last week’s forecast. It missed the widespread frost early in the forecast period, and it got the timing wrong on the arrival of cooler air.  The area of low pressure forecasted to track through northern Manitoba and then drag a cold front southward did develop, but it tracked much further

Understanding the classifications of clouds

With practice, one can become fairly proficient at identifying cloud types

In last week’s article we began our reassessment of how clouds form. We looked at the collision-coalescence process in which tiny cloud droplets collide and stick together, allowing them to grow big enough to fall as rain. This process occurs within warm clouds where temperatures remain above the freezing point. In this part of the


Weather: Seasonably mild and dry ahead

Forecast issued September 23, covering the period from September 28 to October 5, 2022

The weather models again did a good job with the last forecast period. Some regions saw a light frost as forecasted last Thursday morning, and the warmer air arrived by the weekend, making for nice fall weather. Let us hope this trend in forecast accuracy continues into this period. The models have been consistent with

Understanding clouds and weather

As air cools, the evaporation:condensation ratio tilts in condensation’s favour

I know it is an extremely busy time of year, so thanks to those of you who have found some time to send in weather questions. I try to either answer your questions directly or cover them by writing an article about the topic. If you have sent me a question and I have not


Weather: Seasonably mild and dry spell ahead

Forecast issued September 16, covering the period from September 21 to 28, 2022

Like the last forecast period, the weather models did a fairly good job with the overall weather pattern, but the timing of the different systems was off by a day or two. This break in the timing of the systems began with the rain and showers that moved through southern and central Manitoba last Thursday,

Fall frost and the frost-free season

For most spots in agro-Manitoba, a frost in early September wouldn’t be all that unusual

I am a little reluctant to write about fall frost this year because I have been given a little flak over the last few months about how, every time I write about something, it seems to happen. What can I say, other than “I wish I had that kind of power over the weather!” When


Weather: A slow return to seasonal temperatures

Forecast issued September 9, covering the period from September 14 to 21, 2022

It’s interesting how the forecast played out over the last period. At first glance it seemed off the mark, but on a closer look it was off only in the timing of the weather trends. The heat built in over the long weekend and into the first week of September, but cooler air moved in

Warm end to summer may continue into fall

The Winnipeg and Calgary areas booked above-average rainfall over their summer months

Where does the time go? Not only have we come to the end of another month, but also the end of climatological summer. That means it is time for a double look back at the weather — first for August, then for the summer. We will begin in Manitoba and move westward across the Prairies.