Off to a warm and dry start

Forecast issued Aug. 11, 2014, covering the period from Aug. 13 to 20, 2014

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Published: August 14, 2014

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies compared to historical averages over the 30 days ending Aug. 7. You can see just how dry it’s been across nearly all of agricultural Manitoba during this period; the only wet area was around The Pas. Farther west, much of northern and western Saskatchewan was wetter than average, as was east-central Alberta.

Only problem with last week’s forecast was that we saw two cold fronts move through last weekend instead of just one. The first moved through Saturday, bringing a few quick-moving thunderstorms. The second moved through on Sunday, bringing scattered clouds, the odd shower and cooler temperatures. Hopefully the forecast for this week will be as accurate!

It looks like this forecast period will begin warm and dry as a building ridge of high pressure to our west slowly moves to the east during the week. We should see plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 20s to maybe even 30 C early in the week. As this ridge of high pressure moves to the east it is forecast to flatten, starting around Friday. This will allow a weak area of low pressure to move overtop of the ridge, bringing with it partly cloudy skies along with a few showers and thunderstorms. We’ll likely see these conditions last right through the weekend before this system moves off to the east. Sunday looks like it will be the cloudiest and wettest day as the low is forecast to be directly over us.

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3D Rendering of a tornado into withered corn field next to utility poles
 Photo: BrilliantEye/IStock/Getty Images

Types of tornado mimics

Not everything with spinning winds on the Canadian Prairies is a tornado. From dust devils to cold-core funnel clouds, there are a number of weather phenomenon that fit the description.

For next week we should see the weekend low move off to the northeast on Monday, allowing for clearing skies and slightly cooler weather. Highs for the first half of next week are expected to be in the mid-20s, with overnight lows in the lower teens. The overall pattern also looks like it will change next week as the flow becomes more zonal (west to east). This will allow systems coming in off of the Pacific to move quickly eastward, bringing increasing chances of unsettled weather as the week moves on. Currently, the models show a low moving through during the second half of next week, bringing rain to central regions along with cooler temperatures.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 19 to 29 C; lows, 7 to 14 C.

About the author

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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