Nice fall weather moving in

Forecast issued Monday, Sept. 15 - Covering: Sept. 17 – Sept. 24, 2014

Reading Time: < 1 minute

Published: September 18, 2014

This graph created by the University of Alabama in Huntsville, shows the monthly global lower troposphere temperature anomaly since 1978. The data used in this graph are gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites and measures the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometres above sea level. You can see that since about 2001 global temperatures have routinely been above average.

Last week’s forecast didn’t work out quite as expected. The strong arctic high did build southward, but it remained farther to the west than originally forecast, resulting in more cloud cover. While some areas did see some light frost late last week, the extra clouds kept most places a little warmer at night and a little cooler during the day.

For this forecast period we have to contend with two different areas of high pressure. The first high is another surface-based arctic high, expected to slide southeastward during the week. This high should take a much more easterly track through northwestern Ontario. At the same time we’ll see an upper ridge of high pressure building to our west try to move eastward. It will be a tough call as to which high will have the biggest influence on our weather.

Read Also

Soybeans being harvested in October 2025, near Treherne, Manitoba.

October rain recharges Manitoba soils

Daniel Bezte looks back on October weather on the Prairies and looks ahead to see whether there’s any consensus for this winter’s weather.

It now looks like we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds from Wednesday to Friday as cold air remains in place in the upper atmosphere. Temperatures will slowly warm as the week goes on, with highs expected to be in the low 20s and overnight lows around the 5 C mark. We could see a bit more clouds along with the odd shower on Friday as a weak low slides through.

Over the weekend and into the first part of next week the western upper ridge should finally move in, bringing mainly sunny skies along with high temperatures in the low to mid-20s. Beyond this, the weather models show a fairly strong area of low pressure moving across the northern Prairies. This low will likely drag a cold front across central and southern Manitoba sometime on Wednesday, bringing a short shot of cooler air.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 12 to 22 C; lows, 1 to 9 C.

About the author

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

explore

Stories from our other publications