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Forecast: Mild weather with little precipitation ahead

Issued November 19, 2018: Covering the period from November 21 to November 28

Things are looking pretty quiet on the weather front over the next week or two as we slowly work our way into winter. After what appeared to be an early start to winter back in October, things have settled down a little bit, with most regions having only a little snow cover so far.

With most of our snow coming from large winter storms, it doesn’t look like we’ll see much in the way of new accumulations during this forecast period. In fact, a few mild days may reduce what little snow cover some areas already have. To begin this forecast period, the weather models show a couple of weak systems tracking through our region from the northwest. Each of these systems may bring a light dusting of snow, with the best chance for measurable snow being in southwestern regions.

By Thursday the models show a building ridge of high pressure pushing in from the west, bringing with it some of the mildest temperatures we have seen since the beginning of the month. Expect daytime highs to push toward the +5 C mark on Thursday before slightly colder air moves back in on Friday. Unlike previous warmups, there are no strong pushes of cold air ready to dive in behind this warmup. Eastern regions may see the odd flurry over the weekend as a weak area of low pressure tracks across central Manitoba. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the -2 to -4 C range, with overnight lows around -10 C.

These seasonably warm temperatures are forecast to continue into the first half of next week as a weak high pressure settles in across the region. The big question is, just how much sunshine can we expect to see? With high pressure dominating the region we should see plenty of sunshine, but so far this month weak high pressure has brought, at best, partly cloudy skies. Looking further ahead, the weather models show another shot of above-freezing temperatures moving in during the second half of next week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs -12 to 1 C; lows, -21 to -7 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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