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Forecast: A first taste of winter

Issued November 5, 2018: Covering the period from November 7 to November 14

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies over the last two months as percentiles. Looking at the map you can see that a large portion of the Prairies has seen near-average to moderately high amounts of precipitation. The driest regions were in south-central Alberta and far northern Alberta while the wettest regions were found in north-central Alberta and northeastern Saskatchewan along with eastern Manitoba.

Last week’s forecast did not play out very well. While high pressure did try to build in it wasn’t nearly as strong as expected. Combine this with the several areas of low pressure that were forecasted actually tracking by to our south, and we ended up with more clouds than sunshine. One bright spot was that with more cloud cover, overnight lows stayed on the mild side.

For this forecast period it looks like winter is going to try and make some inroads into our region. The tough part is that an area of low pressure is expected to bring snow and blowing snow to much of central and southern Manitoba on Tuesday and possibly into the first part of Wednesday. What makes this tough is that I have to write this forecast on Monday and if we get significant snow cover it will have a notable impact on temperatures for the rest of this forecast period. That said, I will go with only a light covering of snow on which to base this forecast’s temperatures.

After the clouds and precipitation from the system earlier in the week it finally looks like we’ll see an extended period of sunny but cold weather. Arctic high pressure is forecasted to drop southwards behind the departing low, bringing plenty of sunshine and cold temperatures. Expect daytime highs to struggle to reach -5 C with overnight lows around -12 C or colder if any areas see significant snow cover.

A second arctic high is forecasted to bring a reinforcing shot of cold air over the weekend, which will definitely make it feel like the start of winter. Once this high slides by to our south, the weather models are showing a fairly strong push of mild Pacific air moving in from the west around the middle of next week. Confidence in this part of the forecast is not that high, but the medium-range weather models have been leaning towards warmer-than-average temperatures across our region for the middle of November, so this week’s taste of winter might just be that.

Usual temperature range for this period: highs: -6 to 6 C; lows: -15 to -2 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 75 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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