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Forecast: Little change expected in overall pattern

Issued Feb. 8, 2016, covering the period from Feb. 10, 2016 to Feb. 17, 2016

The battle between cold air to our northeast and milder air to our west and south will continue, with the overall pattern staying the same — but as they say, the devil is in the details.

Take last weekend’s area of low pressure. The models had predicted this low, but it ended up a little stronger than expected and came in a little quicker. The end result wasn’t more snow than anticipated; instead we saw warmer temperatures ahead of the system and higher winds as the system pulled out on Sunday.

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This forecast will begin with an area of arctic high pressure slowly sliding southeast behind last weekend’s low. This high should bring more sun than clouds, but the way it’s been going this winter, don’t be surprised if there are more clouds than sun. This is due to the close proximity of the milder air to our west. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs in the -12 to -15 C range and overnight lows in the -20 to -24 C range, possibly a little colder if skies clear and winds become light.

By the weekend an area of low pressure will move in off the Pacific and travel across the northern and central Prairies, bringing more clouds and the chance for a little light snow, along with milder temperatures. Most of the light snow looks as if it will stay to our north, with the best chance of seeing snow later in the day on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate ahead of the low, with highs by Sunday expected to be in the -4 C range.

We’ll see a short push of colder air behind this system, before a second system slides across the central Prairies late on Tuesday. As with most of the systems so far this winter, only a little light snow or flurries are expected, with most falling across central regions. Temperatures will warm back up to the -5 C range ahead of the system, with colder air once again pushing in later in the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -19 to -4 C; lows, -31 to -12 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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