General weather pattern remains the same

Issued: Monday, July 27, 2015 – Covering: July 29 – August 5, 2015

This map shows the total precipitation across the Prairies during the 14-day period ending July 23. This map does a nice job of inadvertently showing the position of the upper-level ridge during this period, as seen by the dry conditions over southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Thunderstorms firing along the edge of the ridge brought some significant rains to north-central Saskatchewan and much of agricultural Manitoba during this period.

Last week’s forecast played out pretty close to what was predicted, with the only exception that we didn’t really see much of a cool-down last Friday. It does look like we’ll see overall temperatures cool down a little during this forecast period as the general weather pattern undergoes a bit of a change. This is thanks to the unseasonably strong area of low pressure that moved through our region during the first part of this week.

This low is expected to have pushed out of southern and central Manitoba by late Wednesday. It is then forecasted to stall out and become a large area of low pressure over Hudson Bay. At first, this will allow the upper-level winds over our region to become westerly, bringing nice summer weather on Thursday and Friday with plenty of sunshine and highs in the mid- to upper 20s.

Over the weekend the Hudson Bay low is forecasted to intensify and get larger. This, combined with a strengthening upper ridge to our west, will cause the flow across our region to become more northwesterly. This flow will allow cooler air to begin working its way in, with daytime highs over the weekend expected to be in the low to mid-20s. No storm systems are expected to affect us during this time frame, but often with this type of setup we can expect to see afternoon cloudy periods with a few scattered showers or thundershowers.

The Hudson Bay low is forecasted to weaken and move out early next week. This will allow the western ridge to push eastwards, but an area of low pressure is expected to ride over the top of the ridge bringing increasing clouds to our region on Tuesday, with a good chance of showers and thundershowers on Wednesday. Behind this low the models are showing a modified arctic high building in, which would bring sunny skies but cool weather for the second half of next week, with highs likely only making it to around 20 C.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs: 21 to 30 C Lows: 8 to 16 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



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