Warm weather dominated 2023 headlines

Part 1 of our look back on the weather of 2023

For those of you who have been reading my articles over the years, you probably know that the end of the December and the beginning of January means it’s time to reflect on the previous year’s weather. I like to start off with a global view and then zoom in to Canada and then, finally,

What’s the ideal Christmas weather?

Will there be snow on the ground or a brown holiday?

Every few years I like to revisit the topic of perfect Christmas holiday weather. Each year that I have looked at this, December has started out warm and dry with little snow cover across large parts of the southern Prairies. And what do we see this year? A warm start to December with below average


Weather forecasting 101: the short game

The granular detail of short range forecasting depends on complex models and constant updates

I recently tried to explain how I go about creating a forecast so you can do it too. Here is the Coles notes version: This final point is important. This is when you start to understand how different professional forecasters think. They might call for snow and yet the weather models don’t show snow. You

A warm start to winter

Most models agree it will be warmer than usual, with some variations

It is time once again to look at last month’s weather and peer ahead to the latest long-range forecasts. Fall is now officially over and we are beginning the meteorological winter, so let’s see how the fall weather numbers added up. Alberta once again had a very warm month compared to the long-term average. The


How to create your own weather forecast

There are plenty of resources but there’s a science and art to forecasting

One of the questions I’m asked most often is how I create my weather forecasts. I have discussed some of the weather websites I use, but I don’t think I’ve ever gone into detail. If I do a good job, I might put myself out of business! To create your own forecast, you first need

October ends up as average

Can we expect a relatively warm and dry end to 2023?

After a warm September across the Prairies, the first half of October continued in September’s footsteps. Above-average temperatures graced all three Prairie provinces for the first two to almost three weeks of the month. There was not much precipitation, making for absolutely beautiful fall weather. The wheels didn’t quite fall off, but winter made an


The probabilities suggest that a snowfall event yielding at least 10 centimetres in the Winnipeg region will happen about twice per typical winter.

A deeper dive into winter snowfall amounts

Statistically, we see less than two centimetres about half the time when it snows

Often when we get October snow, I am asked how often we see big snowfall events. I talked a little bit about this last week but this week I will take a deeper dive into snowfall. During one of my university courses on water systems, we looked at stream flows and how to calculate the

Let’s remember that warm, dry September

OUTLOOK | The various weather models lean toward near-average precipitation ahead

I know I say this nearly every month, but wow, did that last month go fast! Maybe it was all the nice warm weather we saw across much of Manitoba, Saskatchewan and even into Alberta. Before we do our monthly look back and then peer ahead to see what the last three months of the


Early-spring and late-fall frosts

The Winnipeg area may see a record-long frost-free stretch this year

It’s time to talk about fall frost and the length of this year’s frost-free season. So far, most areas of agricultural Manitoba have not yet experienced frost – or have they? Data for major centres shows a number of locations came close to frost on Sept. 12, and I found 10 to 15 locations did

El Niño and chaos theory

Will Western Canada have the textbook warm and dry El Niño winter?

El Niño can affect the kind of weather we might expect this winter. The formation and movement of one system can impact how other systems behave around the world. This is called teleconnection, which refers to the long-distance relationships or connections between climate events that occur in different parts of the world. This fundamental concept