Forecast: Weather models struggling

Forecast issued August 26, 2022, covering August 31 to September 7, 2022

It seems a little early for weather models to be struggling with forecasts, but that has been happening in the last several weeks. For the third consecutive week, the weather models appeared to have settled on a stable forecast, only to have small changes grow and magnify and totally change the forecast. That’s chaos theory

Forecast: Are more thunderstorms ahead?

Forecast issued Aug. 19, 2022, covering Aug. 24-31, 2022

For the second week in a row, the forecast kind of fell apart. The culprits this time around were a couple of innocent small upper-level lows. Last issue’s forecast began with mention of some slight instability. Well, that instability manifested itself as an upper low that tracked through our region on Aug. 15, setting off


Weather: Heat predicted to move in

Forecast issued August 12, 2022, covering the period from August 17 to 24

The forecast last week did not play out nearly as well as some of the previous forecasts. The main issue was that progression of the primary weather features across Canada slowed down. This not only threw off the timings on the systems, but it allowed some systems to strengthen while others weakened. For this forecast

Weather: Warm temps to continue

Forecast issued August 5, 2022, covering the period from August 10 to 17

Last week’s forecast was fairly accurate, only off by a day or so in the timing of systems during the first half. In the second half, the warm weather moved in, but the western low did not develop as expected, so we did not see the strong southerly winds last Sunday and Monday. For the


Weather: Nice mid-summer temperatures on horizon

Forecast issued July 29, 2022, covering the period from August 3 to August 10

Last week’s forecast played out close to main weather model predictions. We definitely saw cooler and unsettled conditions as a large low tracking well to our north pushed clouds and scattered showers and thundershowers, along with cooler temperatures, into our region. The forecast ended with uncertainty as to whether warmer temperatures would move in. Guess

Weather: Cooler and less humid stretch ahead

Forecast issued July 22, 2022, covering the period from July 27 to August 3, 2022

Last issue’s forecast began well, as an area of low pressure did move across the northern Prairies, bringing with it a cold front and cooler temperatures last weekend and into the early part of the last week of July.  The last part of that forecast looks as though it may be off, as the return


Forecast: Cooler and unsettled weather ahead

Forecast issued July 15, 2022, covering the period from July 20 to 27, 2022

The weather models did a good job with forecasts over the last few weeks, which is fairly typical for this time of the year. By mid-summer, we usually do not have to deal with strong areas of low pressure that can really play havoc with forecasts. This doesn’t mean the forecast will get everything right.

Weather: Hot temps and unsettled skies ahead

Forecast issued July 8, covering the period from July 13 to July 20, 2022

Last week’s forecast played out well, considering the weak systems in place and the relatively unstable atmosphere. We saw some cool unsettled weather, the heat moved in, and we had the chance of thundershowers or stronger thunderstorms every few days. For this forecast period, the only difference is that it looks like temperatures are going to heat up


Weather: Traditional summer conditions arrive

Forecast issued July 1, covering the period from July 6 to July 13, 2022

Last issue’s forecast did a pretty good job of handling the big picture, but as usual, getting the details and timings perfect is difficult. For this forecast period, I think the best two words to sum it up are traditional summer. This forecast period will begin with high pressure building in from the west. Ahead

Weather: Plenty of chances for showers and thundershowers

Forecast issued June 24, covering the period from June 29 to July 6, 2022

Last week’s forecast was not too bad. We did see temperatures fluctuate between one or two days of warm and then a couple of days of cool weather. It was also fairly unstable, with several systems bringing clouds, showers, thundershowers, and even some thunderstorms. For this forecast period it looks like July is going to