Weather: Chance of stormy weather but lots of uncertainty

Forecast issued November 4, covering the period from November 9 to 16, 2022

What is the old saying? Don’t like the weather? Wait a minute. That seems totally appropriate for our current weather pattern.  We are in a very active pattern as the persistent ridge of high pressure that brought warm fall weather across Western Canada has collapsed and, in its place, we have a large trough of

Weather: Looking for the start of winter

Forecast issued October 28, covering the period from November 2 to November 9, 2022

Last issue’s forecast turned out not too badly, with only a couple of wrinkles. There was a faster than expected return to mild temperatures and instead of a southern low, the western ridge rebounded, bringing nice warm fall weather through the last weekend of October. As we head into November, we will see average daytime


Weather: The forecast models are struggling

Forecast issued October 21, covering the period from October 26 to November 2, 2022

Forecasting the weather is hard, as I have repeatedly pointed out, and forecasting the weather a week in advance is even harder. Add in the huge uncertainty that fall and spring bring to forecasting, and it starts to enter the realm of impossibility. That said, I still try to make a go of it. Last week’s forecast started

Weather: Upper ridge and mild weather featured in forecast

Forecast issued October 14, covering the period from October 19 to October 26, 2022

Last week’s forecast ran into trouble early on. After a warm start, the forecasted northern low tracked by and dragged cold and unsettled air into our region. This northern low then stalled out over Hudson Bay and drifted back westward. This retrograde motion kept us in a cold and moist northerly flow all of last weekend and kept the


Weather: Riding the fall temperature roller-coaster

Forecast issued October 7, covering the period from October 12 to October 19, 2022

Those of you who follow my forecasts know a couple of things about them. One, I need to be general, since I create a weeklong forecast with a lead time of five days. Two, weather forecasting is tough no matter when, but fall and spring are hardest because they can bring wild swings in the

Weather: Warm temps to return by Thanksgiving

Forecast issued September 30, covering the period from October 5 to October 12, 2022

There were two concerns with last week’s forecast. It missed the widespread frost early in the forecast period, and it got the timing wrong on the arrival of cooler air.  The area of low pressure forecasted to track through northern Manitoba and then drag a cold front southward did develop, but it tracked much further


Weather: Seasonably mild and dry ahead

Forecast issued September 23, covering the period from September 28 to October 5, 2022

The weather models again did a good job with the last forecast period. Some regions saw a light frost as forecasted last Thursday morning, and the warmer air arrived by the weekend, making for nice fall weather. Let us hope this trend in forecast accuracy continues into this period. The models have been consistent with

Weather: Seasonably mild and dry spell ahead

Forecast issued September 16, covering the period from September 21 to 28, 2022

Like the last forecast period, the weather models did a fairly good job with the overall weather pattern, but the timing of the different systems was off by a day or two. This break in the timing of the systems began with the rain and showers that moved through southern and central Manitoba last Thursday,


Weather: A slow return to seasonal temperatures

Forecast issued September 9, covering the period from September 14 to 21, 2022

It’s interesting how the forecast played out over the last period. At first glance it seemed off the mark, but on a closer look it was off only in the timing of the weather trends. The heat built in over the long weekend and into the first week of September, but cooler air moved in

Weather: Summer heat trying to hold on

Forecast issued September 2, covering the period from September 7 to 14, 2022

After a few weeks of less than accurate forecasts, last issue’s forecast was nearly perfect. The western ridge of high pressure did push eastward, bringing sunny, hot and dry weather. The only hitch in the forecast was the slight cooldown last Friday and Saturday, which was the result of a cold front sliding southward behind an area