Tag Archives Weather Vane

It always amazes me how a small change in a single weather system can have big implications on the weather. This happened with the Colorado low in our last forecast. The low formed as expected, but took a much slower and southeasterly route than predicted. It was all part of a stagnant air flow that

Due to the timing of deadlines this holiday season, I cannot provide the usual weather forecast. Instead, I thought we would have a little fun and take a brief look at the latest long-range outlooks for 2023. I will dig deeper into this topic in January and examine some of the factors that may drive

We are starting to see a trend in medium-range weather forecasts this winter. The first half of the forecasts are turning out well but the second halves are struggling. Last issue’s forecast followed this pattern, with the call for a cold start and then a quick return to milder temperatures. In the second half of

The first half of last issue’s forecast played out pretty darned close to what the weather models predicted. We saw a fairly strong area of low-pressure track through central Manitoba early in the forecast period, and this low was followed by a quick shot of colder air. The second low did develop and brought a

As we have seen with the last few forecasts, the weather models have been doing a good job with the overall weather pattern but are struggling with the details. Take last issue’s forecast: the overall pattern looked mild and dry, and that is exactly what we saw. But the timing of the smaller-scale features was

The last forecast period did not materialize exactly as predicted but the end results were pretty close. We saw several lows drop south to southeastward every couple of days early in the forecast period, bringing light snow. What we did not see was much in the way of clear skies during that period, as the

Weather models had a good handle on our last forecast period. They were correct about the development and overall movement of last week’s Colorado low. It developed as forecasted and ended up moving northeast in two waves, as expected. The first wave was early in the week; the second, late in the week. Timing of