How to create your own weather forecast

There are plenty of resources but there’s a science and art to forecasting

One of the questions I’m asked most often is how I create my weather forecasts. I have discussed some of the weather websites I use, but I don’t think I’ve ever gone into detail. If I do a good job, I might put myself out of business! To create your own forecast, you first need

Cold-cloud precipitation and super-cooled water

Meteorology 101: Cold clouds dominate Prairie weather even in summer

Preliminary numbers for October’s global temperatures are coming out and they don’t look good. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, October 2023 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.3 C, which was 0.85 C above the 1991-2020


Heat, land and water

Land and water react very differently to incoming solar radiation, with huge effect

Before jumping back to our meteorology 101 classes, we have to say a few words about this spring’s snow melt. Holy cow, was that fast! Perfect conditions came together for what can only be called one of the fastest snow melts I can remember. First off, most areas did not have deep snow cover and

Weather school: Jet streams, venting and wind

Forces have lined up to favour these recent snows and strong winds

Snow or wind, snow or wind, which to write about this week? I think I am going to try to finish up our look at wind. Hopefully by next week we will be in a warmer spring-like pattern, and will be done with the snow, so what better time to write about it? Unfortunately, for


Weather school: Rare and unusual clouds

Weather school: Rare and unusual clouds

Canada’s Northwest Passage is currently open, albeit with some patchy ice

In this article we will continue our study of clouds by looking at several additional terms that can be used to describe and help identify them, and we’ll also look at some rare or unusual cloud types. Before diving into this topic, I want to do a quick update on the state of Arctic sea

Weather: The hottest Manitoba summers

There isn’t a clear-cut definition of what makes a heat wave

For the first time in a while, I am going off grid and enjoying the great outdoors. So, this time around I am digging back and refreshing an older article about the warmest Manitoba summers. So far this year, using Winnipeg as a data point, we have the beginnings of a hot summer, but August


Consistent July temperatures across the Prairies

As summer begins to wind down, let’s take a look at the month that was

Well, believe it or not, another month has come and gone, and depending where you are across the Prairies, and what type of weather you like best, July was either a great month or just too darned wet! So, it is time to once again look back at just what transpired weather-wise across the Prairies

The more water vapour there is in the air, the more potential energy exists to help a 
thunderstorm develop.

Weather school: Understanding heat waves, Part 1

A blocking pattern left parts of Manitoba under the influence of a hot ridge of high pressure

Most areas felt the effects of the early-summer heat wave that brought high daytime temperatures and even warmer overnight temperatures as well as some high humidities, light winds and, for some of you, torrential rains, so I thought we should re-examine a topic I seem to be revisiting every year or two: blocking patterns. Early this year in weather school I talked about


Forecast: Summer weather is moving in

Covering the period from June 17 to June 24

Well, last week’s storm system, which combined with the remnants of tropical storm Cristobal, ended up playing out pretty close to what the weather models predicted. The timing of some of the features was off by a day or so, but overall, they did a good job. For this forecast period, it looks like we should be done with these

It’s believed that when rotating columns of air get squeezed into a narrower shape, wind speeds increase, eventually producing a tornado.

Weather School: What makes storms severe?

Much of our summer rainfall is from typical, rather than severe, thunderstorms

A couple of weeks ago we talked about what it takes to form severe thunderstorms: heat, humidity, lift, and some way to vent the air at the top of the storm. This time we’ll take a look at what takes a severe thunderstorm and turns it into a thunderstorm to truly remember, or maybe forget.