Soybean complex crushed by selloffs

Soybean complex crushed by selloffs

All eyes are on South America as the bean crop comes off

Canola had another week of sharp losses before bouncing back with a double-digit gain on March 23, but the Chicago soy complex also had a week to forget. The May soybean contract fell to US$14.1950 per bushel at the end of March 23 after a one-day, 29-cent drop. It was the ninth negative session in

ICE July 2023 canola with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

ICE weekly outlook: Not a matter of when, but where canola peaks

Prevailing trend remains downward

MarketsFarm — As the rally in canola on ICE Futures continued Wednesday, an analyst stressed it’s not when this upswing ends, but where. David Derwin of PI Financial in Winnipeg spoke of when canola prices were falling, and they broke through that psychological barrier of $800 per tonne on their way down. “That was the


(File photo by Dave Bedard)

Canola fund short position still rising

Managed money net long in soybeans

MarketsFarm — The size of the fund short position in continued to rise in early March, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data out from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As of March 7, the net managed money short position in canola came in at 46,222 contracts (61,998 short/15,776 long), an increase

Soybean plants emerging from corn residue in a U.S. field. Traders are turning their attention toward North American weather conditions as southern states get into spring planting.

Canola values end their slide

After nine straight days of declines, the ICE Futures canola market finally saw a splash of green the day before St. Patrick’s Day. The most active May contract hit a session high of $829.50 per tonne on March 3, then proceeded to lose roughly $90 over the next two weeks. It hit a low of


ICE July 2023 canola with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

ICE weekly outlook: Canola continues its collapse

Limited demand, more farmer selling seen

MarketsFarm — After losing $62 per tonne the week before, the May contract on the ICE Futures canola market extended its losses for the week ended Wednesday with little relief on the horizon. Winnipeg-based trader Jerry Klassen of Resilient Commodity Analysis said the massive selloff is the result of farmers realizing there wouldn’t be a

An Australian canola crop near Smeaton, about 100 km northwest of Melbourne. Officials predict Australia’s canola harvest will hit 8.6 million tonnes, which could cut into Canada’s export prospects.

Canola falls below $800 support level

A decline in Chicago soyoil values has kicked out a support pillar

It finally happened: canola broke below its support level of $800 per tonne. For quite some time, the Canadian oilseed has been rangebound at $800-$900 per tonne. As with a stuck vehicle, that rocking back and forth gave way to old- and new-crop prices being pulled out of that rut. One element that provided the


ICE May 2023 canola with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

ICE weekly outlook: No floor in sight for overdone canola

'A lot of money playing around in canola right now'

MarketsFarm — The ICE Futures canola market was in freefall mode through the first half of March, hitting its weakest levels in over a year. While the losses may be looking overdone, the bottom remains to be seen. “This has been a brutal drop in canola,” said Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather with

(Richardson International video screengrab via YouTube)

Canola crush of 2022 smallest in five years

Meanwhile, soybean crush rose on the year

MarketsFarm — Statistics Canada (StatCan) reported that 2022 had the smallest domestic canola crush for a calendar year since 2017. As well, 2022 marked the smallest canola oil production in five years and the least amount of canola meal produced in four years. The sharp reduction of canola being crushed was due to the 2021


(File photo by Dave Bedard)

Confirmation of large canola short position slowly appears

CFTC data flow slowly resuming

MarketsFarm — The size of the fund short position in canola rose in February and likely grew even larger in March, as weekly Commitments of Traders data slowly trickles out from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). CFTC data has stalled since a ‘cyber-related incident’ delayed the release of the data for weeks. As

ICE May 2023 canola with 20-day moving average, RSI and CFTC Commitments of Traders data. (Barchart)

Reading between the lines: Oversold canola due for correction

Technical signs point to possible recovery

MarketsFarm — Canola futures posted sharp losses over the past week, with the May contract touching its weakest level in six months. While damage was done from a chart standpoint, there are technical signs that a recovery is possible. RSI The relative strength index (RSI) is a technical indicator that provides insight into whether a