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North American grain and oilseed markets are also keeping an eye on seeding weather as attention turns to the 2019-20 crop.

Grain Markets, Markets

Canola may be vulnerable if CBOT soybeans decline

China’s block on canola is already baked into the market

By
ICE Futures canola contracts held reasonably steady during the week ended April 5, hovering above major long-term lows as traders contemplated the lack of Chinese demand and what the trade dispute means going forward. The bearish influence of China shuttering its doors to Canadian canola has been generally factored into the market, with lows possibly
Blooming rapeseed field at sunset
Grain Markets, Markets

Supply-side limitations won’t support canola indefinitely

Canola recovered some of its losses over the past week

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Until tensions between Canada and China are alleviated, there will continue to be little demand for canola. Usually taking 40 per cent of the canola Canada grows, China is the country’s most important customer for that crop. Japan is a distant second and while lowered canola prices have become attractive to other buyers, it remains
ICE May 2019 canola with Bollinger (20,2) bands, a gauge of market volatility. (Barchart)
Crops, Markets

ICE weekly outlook: Canola bearish with or without China

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MarketsFarm — ICE Futures canola contracts saw a modest correction off of major support over the week ended Wednesday, but the longer-term trend remains pointed lower with large old-crop supplies and uncertain export prospects overhanging the market. Canadian canola exports to China are effectively non-existent right now, with the absence of that major customer casting
While China has been the biggest influence on canola bids, it hasn't been the only factor.
Grain Markets, Markets

China’s import ban tosses an anvil to ICE canola futures

Substantial supplies and little demand add more pressure

By
China definitely looms large globally, and that was very evident on March 22 when canola contract prices plummeted on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Canola ended trading on March 18 up $1.50-$2.60 per tonne, with the May contract closing at $466.30. For most of last week, canola had moved up and down a little each way
Canola bids have fluctuated a fair bit this last week.
Grain Markets, Markets

China one of several factors keeping canola bids in flux

Canola’s narrative today resembles that of U.S. soybeans

By
Being the world’s second-largest economy, there is no doubt China has a lot of economic clout. Every tidbit of news or rumour regarding China has been able to drive prices up or down within minutes — and this past week was no different. There are strong similarities between what has been happening with canola and
Canola has lost roughly $30 per tonne on the markets over the past month.
Grain Markets, Markets

Rumours become reality as China curbs canola demand

Traders also have a wary eye on U.S. Midwest weather

By
Canola futures fell hard during the week ended March 8, hitting their lowest levels in more than two years as concerns over Chinese demand came to the forefront. Over the past few months, rumblings that Chinese demand was waning and Canadian exporters were facing extra hurdles moving canola to the country had been growing louder.
Political unease with China is creating a lot of uncertainty in canola markets.
Grain Markets, Markets

Concerns over demand from China drag on canola values

U.S. traders remain cautious with no trade deal yet set

By
ICE Futures canola contracts crashed and burned during the week ended March 1, hitting fresh lows in the front months every day of the week. Concerns over Chinese demand coupled with bearish technical signals accounted for much of the selling pressure. While Canadian political attention was largely on other matters during the week, the simmering
Domestic canola crush levels are running at a steady pace, but exports are lagging due to tensions with China.
Grain Markets, Markets

ICE canola finds support at low end of long-term range

World wheat carry-out is expected down from 2017-18 size

By
ICE canola futures fell to fresh contract lows during the week ended Feb. 22, but did manage to find some support to the downside as values eventually consolidated near the bottom edge of their long-term trading range. The focus in the futures has shifted from the March contract to the May, with intermonth spreading a

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