Some 11 million tonnes of wheat will be lost from the global market in the 2021-22 season because of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Strategie Grains said March 17, as the consultancy raised its estimate for European Union exports.
The closure of Ukrainian ports and sanctions imposed on Russia after it invaded its neighbour have disrupted shipments through the Black Sea, sending grain prices to record highs.
In a monthly report, France’s Strategie Grains cut its projection for wheat exports out of Ukraine by almost six million tonnes and from Russia by five million tonnes.
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“Main exporters such as Australia, the U.S., India, the EU-27 and, to a lesser extent, the South American countries, will need to step up their exports to plug the gap,” it said.
Consequently, the consultancy lifted its estimate for wheat shipments from the 27-member European Union this season by two million tonnes to 32.5 million tonnes.
In maize, the war was likely to remove 12 million tonnes of Black Sea supplies from the world market as disruptions prevent much of Ukraine’s planned exports through September from leaving the country, Strategie Grains said.
These would need to be replaced by exports from North and South America and India, it said.
The rally in grain and energy prices in the past weeks added to feed costs that had already jumped during a commodities rally last year, taking a toll on animal farming.
