Consultancy Strategie Grains on July 14 cut all its forecasts for this year’s grain crops in the European Union, as it fine-tuned wheat and barley estimates and factored dry weather that threatens maize production.
The EU wheat crop was expected to yield 123.3 million tonnes, down from 124.4 million projected in June and below the revised 129.9 million tonnes harvested last year, it said in a monthly report.
The barley harvest was seen at 49.6 million tonnes, down from 50.3 million last month and 51.9 million in 2021.
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The French firm had already lowered its wheat and barley crop estimates last month, citing overly dry conditions during the first half of the growing season in many countries.
In maize, the crop was seen falling to 65.4 million tonnes, down from 66.8 million tonnes estimated last month and 69.7 million last year.
“Recurrent water shortages and hot weather in many production zones are adversely impacting yield potentials,” Strategie Grains said, echoing mounting fears of damage to this year’s maize crops.
On the wheat market, the analyst kept its EU export forecast nearly unchanged at 30.4 million tonnes based on strong competitiveness against rival origins and dynamic sales during the first weeks of the campaign.
Strategie Grains’ forecasts were based on maritime exports reaching 30 to 50 per cent of usual capacity but the outlook was not set in stone with new negotiations underway to secure an export shipping corridor for Ukrainian grain exports, it said.
Ukraine is one of the world’s largest corn, wheat and oilseed exporters, with Russia and the European Union among its main competitors on export markets.
Russian exports were seen at close to 40 million tonnes but could be at least five million tonnes larger if Russia harvests more than 89 million tonnes, Strategie Grains said.
