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Grain is loaded for export at a port on the Parana River near Rosario, Argentina on Jan. 31, 2017. A sharp influx of South American soy over the next few months is expected to put a cap on oilseed markets.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola ending stocks still support futures

A seasonal slowdown could be expected in coming months

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The ICE Futures canola market saw some large price swings during the second week of February, although the general path of least resistance remained pointed higher as many months set fresh contract highs. The concerns over tightening supplies that have propped up the canola market for months now remained supportive, although a seasonal slowdown could
Domestic canola usage for the 2020-21 crop year has caught up and passed the levels seen in 2019-20.
Grain Markets, Markets

What goes up in grain markets, must come down — eventually

Traders keep an eye on the possibility of price rationing if stocks fall too low

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Volatility was certainly the order of the week for ICE canola futures as prices fluctuated up and down — due partly to the coming expiry of the March contract, which has been part of a few spectacular months of trading. Canola contracts pushed higher and higher over that time, albeit with a few steps back
Financial markets’ attention in the past week was diverted by a “short squeeze” on shares in GameStop, a chain of bricks-and-mortar video game stores such as this one in New York City’s Jackson Heights area, shown on Jan. 27.
Grain Markets, Markets

Tight canola supplies could perhaps cause ‘short squeeze’

Volatile ICE March canola punched above $700 briefly last week

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The ICE Futures canola market went for a wild ride during the last week of January, hitting levels not seen in nearly 13 years before profit-taking took a bite out of the upside. The nearby March contract rallied sharply for three straight sessions, eventually hitting a high for the move of $724.50 per tonne. The last time canola was
Grain Markets, Markets

Canadian grain exports up 35 per cent on the year

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Canadian grain companies continue to do brisk business moving grains and oilseeds out of the country, with movement of canola, wheat, barley and many other crops running well ahead of the year-ago pace. Crop-year-to-date exports of Canada’s major grains and oilseeds as of Jan. 17 came in at 26.4 million tonnes, according to Canadian Grain
A worker drives a combine through a soybean field in Chivilcoy, on the outskirts of Buenos Aires on April 8, 2020. Argentina is poised to harvest a sizable soy crop in 2021.
Grain Markets, Markets

South American soybean crop looms over oilseed markets

Concerns over dry weather south of the equator are no longer a factor

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Regardless of who is making the call, Brazil will have an extremely large soybean crop in 2021. With estimates ranging from 132 million to 135 million tonnes, it will be a record soybean crop, topping the 126 million tonnes produced in 2019-20. Coupled with Argentina on track to reap a very sizable crop of 47
The size or the formula of the possible tax in the new season are unclear.
Grain Markets, News, Other

Russia may keep taxing wheat exports

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Russia may continue taxing wheat exports in the new marketing season, which starts on July 1, Interfax news agency reported January 14, citing a letter from the Agriculture Ministry to the Russian Union of Grain Exporters. Russia, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, is trying to stabilize domestic food prices with the wheat export
Mexican corn bans complex
Grain Markets, News

Mexican corn bans complex

Proposal would see GMO corn and glyphosate both targeted for elimination

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Reuters – The Mexican government’s push to wean itself off a massive dependence on genetically modified corn imports would upend the country’s food supply, including its big livestock sector, industry officials warn. A Dec. 31 decree banning the use of genetically modified corn over three years has sparked a frenzy of lobbying urging officials to reconsider. Both the Agriculture and Economy ministries held high-level meetings
Speculation that USDA could further drop ending stocks in February’s WASDE fuelled another round of increases in commodity futures.
Grain Markets, Markets

U.S. WASDE points to lower ending stocks, lifts futures

The March contract set a new high based on USDA’s report

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Within days before the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued its latest supply-and-demand report, there was speculation of further reductions to ending stocks for soybeans, corn and wheat. Such bullish news would see U.S. prices rise and spill over into canola. On Jan. 12 USDA released its world agriculture supply-and-demand estimates (WASDE), which slashed soybean ending stocks
Concerns over world soybean stocks, driven partly by concern for growing conditions in South America, are lending even more support to canola values.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola values’ climb likely to continue

Crush margins are around the widest levels seen in the past year

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ICE Futures canola continued its months-long rally during the first week of 2021, hitting fresh contract highs to trade at levels not seen in more than seven years. While a profit-taking correction is always possible, the trend appears intact for the time being. The most active March contract had faced some resistance at the psychological $650-per-tonne mark during
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola futures rise above the $600 mark

Chicago soybeans recently climbed above the US$12-per-bushel level

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Canola futures on ICE Futures rose over $600 during the week ended Dec. 17, but are expected to pull back slightly as market participants enter “holiday mode” in the coming days. Canola prices started the week at $596.30 per tonne, with the January contract gaining $2.70 per tonne on the day. By mid-week, canola closed

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