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Zante, a cargo vessel carrying Ukrainian grain, transits Bosphorus, in Istanbul, Turkey in this Nov. 2 file photo.
Grain Markets, Markets

Russian hypocrisy and the wheat market

Will the Black Sea shipping deal hold or fail?

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Wheat prices went for a wild ride during the week of Oct. 31 to Nov. 4 due to Russian machinations over the Black Sea export agreement. During the weekend of Oct. 29 and 30, the Russian Black Sea fleet was apparently attacked at its base at Sevastopol. Russia quickly levelled accusations that Ukraine perpetrated the
Over 70 per cent of Argentina’s 2021-22 soybean crop sold
Grain Markets, Markets

Over 70 per cent of Argentina’s 2021-22 soybean crop sold

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Soybean producers had sold 70.3 per cent of Argentina’s 2021-22 crop through the third week of October, the agriculture ministry said Oct. 26.  The portion of the soybean crop sold to date underperforms the 74.2 per cent sold during the same period in the 2020-21 season.  Argentina, the world’s top exporter of processed soy, harvested
Fishermen are seen against a bulk carrier entering the port of Odesa under the grain initiative, in Odesa, southern Ukraine.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola futures bouncing around, not breaking out

Latin American weather and Ukrainian uncertainty both add volatility

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The ICE Futures canola market bounced around within a sideways range during the last full trading week of October, with the futures hard-pressed to break one way or the other. The nearby November contract climbed sharply higher at one point, but volumes were thin in the front month as open interest dwindled and lack of
Bullish signals loom large over rangebound canola trade
Grain Markets, Markets

Bullish signals loom large over rangebound canola trade

Supplies in the commercial pipeline remain large for now

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The ICE Futures canola market held rangebound during the week ended Oct. 20, with historically wide crush margins and supportive underlying fundamentals still not enough to break values out of their sideways pattern. However, there were some bullish technical signs hinting a turn higher could be in the works. Intermonth spreading accounted for much of
With seasonal harvest pressure waning, extremely wide crush margins continue to make the best case for why canola prices could move higher.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola futures remain rangebound for now

Recent weakness in the loonie is supportive for exports

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The ICE Futures canola market held rangebound through the first half of October after running into the top end of its months-long trading range. There are plenty of reasons why canola could break higher, but the market doesn’t operate in a vacuum and continued steadiness or even a move lower are also possibilities. The nearby
Destroyed grain storage in the village of Kamianka, Kharkiv, recently liberated from Russian invaders by Ukrainian forces.
Grain Markets, News

Russia to expand grain harvest by five million tonnes

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Russia’s grain harvest is set to grow by about five million tonnes a year thanks to its incorporation of four Ukrainian territories, Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said Oct. 4. “Considering the arable land that exists there, I think at least five million tonnes of grain will be added to the Russian savings box. I also
Canola flirts with $900 a tonne
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola flirts with $900 a tonne

A good selling point appears to be around $880 a tonne

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For a fleeting moment on Oct. 4, it looked like the nearby November canola contract might pierce the $900 per tonne mark.  It would have been the culmination of a meteoric $28/tonne intra-day rise for the oilseed, and a $90 rise over the previous eight sessions, if it hadn’t hit a wall and fallen to
Pigeons fly over destroyed grain storage in the village of Kamyanka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region on Sept. 22.
Grain Markets, Markets

Is the wheat market poised for sharp spike?

Current sabre-rattling adds to volatility

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The U.S. wheat complex drifted lower in the last week of September compared to the previous week. As price fluctuated, ongoing tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine simmered in the background. As September drew to a close, rumblings increased that the agreement allowing Ukraine to export grain through its Black Sea ports would not be
One of eight vessels, carrying 195,000 tonnes of Ukrainian agricultural products, sails from southern Ukraine on Sept. 21.
Grain Markets, Markets

Market-moving factors go beyond fundamentals

Recession fears and Black Sea export worries sway commodities

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Canola futures climbed higher during the week ended Sept. 22, as historically wide crush margins finally showed signs of correcting themselves.  Crush margins relative to the November contract rose above $300 per tonne during the week, indicating canola futures values had considerable room to the upside while still being profitable for buyers. Crush margins around

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