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Canola traders will get their first official estimates of this year’s domestic canola crop from Statistics Canada on Aug. 29.
Grain Markets, Markets

Grain trade expects lower canola yields

Harvest pressures may drag on price rallies

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Harvest operations are in their early stages across Western Canada, leaving the canola market in a somewhat precarious position awaiting news and biding time until there’s a clearer picture on the size of this year’s crop. The November contract held in a rather narrow $30 per tonne range in early August, between $770 and $800,
Canola falls in pre-harvest wait
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola falls in pre-harvest wait

Weather conditions batter against speculation, demand lull

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ICE Futures canola contracts moved lower as the calendar flipped to the new 2023-24 crop year, but managed to uncover support in the early days of August. While Prairie weather remains a major market driver, speculative positioning and a lack of significant commercial demand weighed on values. November canola fell below its 20-day moving average
Canola prices appear to be firmly entrenched to stay above $800 per tonne for now.
Grain Markets, Markets

Canola markets in wait-and-see mode

Production will likely fall below expectations

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Canola prices spent the last full week of July vacillating between increases and decreases as the market shifted into a wait-and-see mode on this year’s crop on the Canadian Prairies. There’s zero doubt the 2023-24 canola harvest won’t make the 18.8 million tonnes projected by Agriculture and Agri-food Canada. Drought and excessive heat across most
Just as there are real-time maps that can show you where traffic is slowed by construction, there are bearish warning signs in canola markets.
Grain Markets, Markets

Reading the roadmaps of the grain market

Expert’s Radar: Beware of ‘construction’ signs

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I recently drove back and forth from Winnipeg to the Turtle Mountains in southwestern Manitoba. It’s about a three-hour drive, or three-and-a-half with the required ice cream stop. There are a few routes that head in the same general direction, so after running into construction on Highway 2 on the way down, we opted for
a field of flowering rapeseed
Grain Markets, Markets

Black Sea deal collapse lifts canola markets

The grain corridor deal collapse has spiked uncertainty over grain supply from Ukraine

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Over the past few months, Russia’s actions toward Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations regarding the Black Sea Grain Initiative are akin to a teenager threatening to leave home because they didn’t get their way. Most times, sooner or later, the kid relents, and all is back to what resembles normal. Maybe the parents bought
A canola field in bloom near Esterhazy, Sask., on July 21, 2023.
Grain Markets, Markets

Market experts predict yellow fields for the year

Expert’s Radar: How much have the world’s farmers painted their fields in oils?

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My neighbour recently had her house painted, transforming the once-drab stucco with peeling green trim into a beautiful rusty red with cream-coloured accents. Just a few days before the painters showed up, she was still second-guessing her colour choices, but the end result looks great. A fresh coat of paint can do wonders while also
Futures markets, Grain Markets, Markets

Weather concerns drive market rallies

Generous U.S. crop estimates aren’t likely to last

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ICE Futures canola contracts climbed higher during the second week of July, with the most-active November contract gaining roughly $200 per tonne in less than two months to hit its strongest level since January. The ongoing uptrend in canola saw futures break through their 200-day moving average during the week, with speculators covering short positions
People watch as a tornado swirls near Carstairs, Alta. 
on July 1 in a screengrab from a social media video.
Grain Markets, Markets

Uncertainty embedded in a weather market

Canola pushes past the bumps of a holiday-shortened trading week

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Canola made a big jump on June 30, following steep increases in the Chicago soy complex, and by July 6 the oilseed appeared well positioned to attack $800 per tonne. The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its planted acres report June 30, catching the trade off guard in cutting the amount of soybean acres by
U.S. wheat export data leaves trade underwhelmed
Grain Markets, Markets, News

U.S. wheat export data leaves trade underwhelmed

Expert's Radar: Time has been unkind to oats futures

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One of my favourite bands from back in high school is set to headline a free concert at my hometown’s annual summer festival this year. I’m looking forward to it, but at the same time, it serves as a reminder that I’ve been around for a while and not so young anymore.  Oats knows?  Oats
Minnesota farmer John Peterson, who uses no-till and cover crops in his corn and soybean fields, and Anna Teeter, a conservation agronomist with Cargill, examine the soil at his farm at North Branch, north of St. Paul, Minnesota, on June 16.
Grain Markets, Markets, Weather

Weather to make grain prices high, growing conditions dry

Acreage estimates from StatCan were bearish for canola values

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June has ended and many have looked up at fireworks lighting up the night sky, celebrating holidays on both sides of the Canada/U.S. border. However, canola growers, traders and analysts will either be looking at the sky for clouds or down at weather maps. After rallying throughout the first half of June to its highest

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