One of my favourite things about watching the Olympics is getting invested in some random sport I’ve never heard of and probably won’t think of again for another four years. But in the heat of the Olympics, that obscure sport draws me in.
At the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics, that sport was ski mountaineering. Rather than just timing how fast an athlete goes down the mountain, in ski mountaineering the participants must also first climb to the top of the hill. There was a slippery staircase involved, the fumbling of taking skis off and on, and some kind of special ski grippers that athletes would stuff into their clothes when not in use. The entire thing was ridiculous to a casual viewer, but compelling just the same.
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After months of sideways and directionless trade, wheat futures finally took a run at climbing higher in mid-February — at roughly the same time as the Olympic ski mountaineers were competing. Wheat prices hit their strongest levels in seven months. Is there more room to the upside, or is it already time for the inevitable return to the starting line?
Charts
The May Chicago soft wheat contract settled at US$5.8025 on Feb. 20, its highest settlement since July 2025. The contract has tacked on about 60 cents per bushel since the start of the calendar year, surpassing all its major moving averages. The advances in spring wheat were more subdued, but the May contract hit its highest levels since September 2025.
May spring wheat ran into resistance at US$6 per bushel and remained short of its next resistance around US$6.14 per bushel. For Chicago soft wheat, the six-dollar mark could be the next upside target with nearby support around US$5.60 per bushel.
U.S. crop
The United States Department of Agriculture held its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum Feb. 19 to 20, with the agency predicting total wheat area in the country for the 2026/27 marketing year at 45.0 million acres. That would only be down by 300,000 acres from the year ago. Average yields were forecast at 50.8 bushels per acre, down from the record 53.3 bu./ac. seen in 2025-26.
The USDA wheat projection assumes only a minor reduction in spring wheat and durum area, of less than 50,000 acres, but the agency is also predicting soybean area will be up by 4.8 million acres. While much of that increased soybean area is expected to come at the expense of corn seedings, spring wheat area in the Northern Plains may also end up planted to soybeans instead.
The recent strength in wheat futures is partially tied to ideas that the U.S. crop won’t be as large as the official projections.
Winterkill
Cold temperatures in Europe and the Black Sea region, along with ongoing dryness issues in parts of the U.S. Plains, have contributed to the gains in wheat with analysts from both sides of the Atlantic lowering their production estimates. Farmers in southern Ukraine also typically start planting their spring crops by late February, but the ground was still frozen this year.
The lack of progress on peace talks between Russia and Ukraine remains another factor in the background of the wheat trade, along with the mounting tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
Canada
Statistics Canada will release its first planted area estimates for the 2026-27 crop on March 5. The survey was conducted before the agreement lowering Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola was announced. While Canadian wheat bids have also shown some strength in sympathy with the U.S. futures, the gains in the canola market following the China news are much more substantial and actual seeded area will likely see more canola and less wheat than whatever StatCan reports.
Funds
The speculative fund position can be an indicator of broader market sentiment. The funds were buying back some of their bearish bets as the futures rose in early February. However, they remain net short nearly 100,000 contracts across the three U.S. wheat markets as of mid February.
More weather or geopolitical issues could be the spark to encourage additional short covering, taking wheat higher up the mountain. However, world wheat supplies remain burdensome, with large harvests in Australia and Argentina now coming on the market, with the inevitable decline always faster than the climb up.
