A bowl of Cheerios doused in oat milk is a popular breakfast option in my house. A quick granola bar when in a rush is also a common choice.
The neighbourhood coffee shop proudly advertises that pumpkin spice lattes can be had with oat milk, which was all but unheard of only a few years ago. However, while oats may be having a moment, actual production of the crop neared all-time lows this year.
Oats
Canadian oat production of 2.434 million tonnes would be the second-smallest crop ever in records going back to 1908, according to updated production data released by Statistics Canada on Sept. 14.
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While the total has come close a few times, it was only lower at one point in 1991. Oats prices, both in the futures and cash markets, have been edging higher over the past few months but remain well below the record highs of late-2021/early-2022.
Last year’s Canadian oats crop of 5.226 million tonnes was the largest in decades, so there’s no immediate concerns over tightness. Buyers are thought to be well covered for the time being. However, as the pendulum swings the other way, tightening supplies coupled with solid demand should lead to some oats pricing opportunities in the latter half of the marketing year.
Flax
A doctor once extolled the benefits of including more flax in my diet, but while it’s a health food staple, it has not quite hit oats levels of widespread popularity. But like oats, Canadian production was down sharply in 2023 at only 267,900 tonnes. That’s well below the levels of the Triffid times in the 2010s and the smallest crop since 1967.
With a substantial carry-in, flax prices are probably not where growers would like to see them. However, there should be plenty of upside given Canada’s tighter crop.
Durum
While oats and flaxseed may be considered ‘healthier’ grains, there’s something to be said about dishes of pasta topped with fresh pesto from the garden. Canada’s 2023-24 durum crop was estimated at 4.059 million tonnes by StatCan, down 31 per cent on the year.
U.S. durum production also slipped on the year, to 57 million bushels from 64 million in 2022-23, according to USDA data. Quality issues have been noted in Europe’s durum crop due to drought in Spain and flooding in Italy, which could create demand opportunities.
However, exports from the Black Sea region remain a question on the durum front, given the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and what it will mean for grain movement.
