Forecast issued Jan. 28, covering Jan. 28 to Feb. 4, 2026
Highlights
- Temperatures will moderate across the Prairies, though a clear west-to-east gradient will remain.
- Alberta can expect mild temperatures, possibly even climbing into the mid-teens across southern Alberta in the first week of February.
- Most of the Artic air should miss Saskatchewan on its way to Manitoba.
- Manitoba should see a return to cold temperatures, though not as extreme as last week.
Overview
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Prairie forecast: Extended cold snap as Arctic high pressure moves in
Artic high pressure will dominate Prairie weather between January 21 and 28, which means a low chance of storms or significant precipitation.
Once again, the weather models performed well with last week’s forecast. Arctic air dominated much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba as expected. This delivering the coldest air of the winter to those regions. Across Alberta, the cold air pushed into central and northern areas as predicted, but southern regions, while cooler, largely missed the deep freeze.
That said, the forecast was not perfect. It missed a couple of weak systems that, when combined with strong Arctic high pressure, resulted in dangerous wind chills across much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
The models also underestimated just how cold the air masses were. I failed to fully account for how little wind is needed at those temperatures to create hazardous wind chill values.
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For this forecast period, temperatures will moderate across the Prairies, though a clear west-to-east gradient will remain.
Western regions will see the mildest conditions with cooler air persisting the farther east you go. A large upper low over Hudson Bay is forecast to slowly weaken and drift southward during this period. Arctic high pressure is expected to drop southward along the western edge of this upper low early in the forecast. This should be south of the border by the weekend.
To the west, weak upper-level ridging is forecast to develop, with a couple of disorganized areas of low-pressure riding over the ridge over the next week or so. Overall, this pattern supports colder conditions in Manitoba to start, milder weather in Saskatchewan, and a return to above-average temperatures for Alberta.
Alberta
Warm and relatively dry conditions are expected throughout this forecast period. A weak upper-level ridge will attempt to build across the region, though it may struggle initially as couple of weak impulses move in from the Pacific. The first impulse is forecast to arrive Saturday, followed by another on Monday.
Both systems look weak. They’re expected to bring cloudy to partly-cloudy skies along with the chance of flurries or brief periods of light snow or rain, depending on timing.
Temperatures will remain mild. Southern regions can expect daytime highs in the 4 to 8°C range, with overnight lows near -3°C. Central and northern regions will be slightly cooler, with daytime highs between -5° and 0°C and overnight lows around -8°C.
As we move into the first week of February, models show the upper ridge strengthening across Alberta. Should this scenario verify, daytime highs across southern Alberta could climb into the low to mid-teens, while central and northern regions warm into the 3° to 8°C range.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
These two regions almost need to be handled separately during this forecast period.
Saskatchewan is expected to see fairly mild mid-winter weather for most of the period. The majority of the province should avoid the coldest Arctic air as it slides south through Manitoba. Only the far eastern areas are expected to be affected.
Elsewhere, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs warming into the -4° to -8°C range by Thursday or Friday and overnight lows near -12°C. These temperatures should hold through the weekend and into early next week. In fact, temperatures early next week may approach the zero-degree mark, particularly across western Saskatchewan.
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A weak impulse is forecast to move through Saturday and Sunday, bringing increased cloud cover and the chance of some light snow.
Across Manitoba, the main weather story is the return to cold following a brief moderation earlier this week. Arctic high pressure is forecast to drop south through the province on Thursday and Friday. This will bring colder conditions, though not as extreme as last week. Daytime highs are expected to be near -20°C, with overnight lows falling to around -27°C.
Over the weekend, temperatures will moderate as the high shifts south and a weak impulse moves in from the west. This system will bring increasing cloud cover late Saturday, with a chance of flurries on Sunday. Daytime highs Sunday and into early next week should moderate into the -7° to -10°C range, with overnight lows near -15°C.
A second disturbance is forecast to track through Manitoba next Tuesday or Wednesday, which will bring potential for some light snow. This system remains several days out, and confidence is low at this time.
