Forecast issued Feb. 18, covering Feb. 18 – 25, 2026
Highlights
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U.S. forecaster sees signs of La Niña shift towards El Niño conditions in early 2026
There is a 60 per cent chance of a shift in the climate phenomenon known as La Niña towards El Niño in February-April 2026. This pattern, known as ENSO-neutral, likely to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
- After a snowy start to the period, colder Artic air will settle in across the Prairies and drop temperatures near to or below the seasonal average
- Alberta could see temperatures begin to moderate early next week
- While colder air has already began to push into Saskatchewan, Manitoba will see mild weather continue for a couple more days
Overview
As the weather models were indicating as early as last week, we are now seeing a clear shift in our weather pattern from unseasonably warm and dry to more seasonable cold. This comes with a snowy start and additional chances for snow over the next week or two.
Following a mild stretch, a strong and broad area of low pressure developed early this week over western North America. Models had been hinting at this system in last week’s forecast, and as is often the case, some of the details evolved.
The first low developed over Alberta. This brought heavy snow to central regions on Tuesday. That system was later replaced by a second low that formed over Montana later on Tuesday and pushed east-northeast. This spread widespread snow across southern and central Saskatchewan on Tuesday afternoon and into Manitoba later in the day.
This second low is forecast to track across North Dakota on Wednesday, bringing additional snow to southern Manitoba. Meanwhile, snow will linger back into Saskatchewan due to a trailing trough of low pressure associated with the initial Alberta system.
More weather coverage: U.S. forecaster sees signs of La Niña shift toward El Niñ0 conditions in early 2026
Snow is expected to taper off across Saskatchewan late Wednesday, while Manitoba could continue to see periods of light snow and flurries into Thursday before the system and its associated trough move off to the east.
Behind this low, colder Arctic air has already moved into Alberta and central Saskatchewan and will continue pushing eastward. By the weekend, all Prairie regions should return to more seasonable mid-February temperatures. Expect daytime highs in the -10°C to -15°C range, with overnight lows around -20°C and a few locations dipping closer to -25°C.
These cooler temperatures are expected to persist through the weekend and into early next week. Models are also indicating another area of low pressure moving in off the Pacific early next week and tracking along the U.S.–Canada border.
Once again, this system will need monitoring, as it carries the potential for additional snowfall. At this point, most of the accumulation appears likely to be confined to the extreme southern Prairies, with amounts near 5 cm.
Alberta
Most of the snow has now moved out of Alberta as the parent low and associated trough shift east. In its wake, cold air has settled in, setting the stage for a prolonged period of near-average or below-average temperatures.
Arctic high pressure will dominate over the next several days, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and cold conditions. Daytime highs are expected to range from -10°C to -15°C, with overnight lows falling between -20°C and -25°C.
Early next week, models suggest another low-pressure system will move into southern British Columbia before sliding eastward. This could bring a slight moderation in temperatures, with daytime highs forecast to improve to the -6°C to -9°C range. Most precipitation from this system appears likely to remain confined to southern regions, but as always, it will require close monitoring.
Looking further ahead, models continue to show temperatures remaining near to below-average through at least the end of the month.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
This forecast period begins with snow and blowing snow across much of Saskatchewan and Manitoba as a low tracks through the Dakotas, dragging a trailing trough northwestward into northern Alberta. Most regions are expected to receive between 10 and 20 cm of snow from this system.
Southwestern Saskatchewan appears likely to miss out on the heaviest snowfall, and current indications suggest southeastern Manitoba may see closer to 5 cm, as persistent ridging to the northeast deflects some of the heavier snow south and west.
Snow should begin tapering off across Saskatchewan late Wednesday, while Manitoba may see lingering light snow into Thursday before skies begin to clear Friday.
More weather coverage: Prairie weather all starts with the sun
Temperatures in Manitoba will remain relatively mild on Wednesday and Thursday before colder Arctic air pushes in Friday. In Saskatchewan, the colder air has already begun arriving, with daytime highs near -15°C across central regions and around -10°C in the south, with temperatures likely falling through the day.
Arctic high pressure will dominate the weekend and early next week, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and cold temperatures. Expect daytime highs between -12°C and -16°C, with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid -20s.
Another area of low pressure is forecast to track across the southern Prairies next Tuesday and Wednesday. As is typical at this range, confidence remains low, but the system bears watching. It could bring milder temperatures and additional snowfall to southern regions.
Looking further ahead, models continue to indicate average to below-average temperatures across Saskatchewan and Manitoba through at least early March.
