A 20 million-tonne canola harvest is unlikely now, but a figure below 18 million tonnes is also unlikely.

Canola yields not great, but good improvement

Harvest progress last week was well behind the five-year pace

As farmers contend with less-than-ideal canola yields, the main thing to keep in mind is the 2022-23 harvest will still be vastly better than last year’s. On Sept. 14, Statistics Canada issued its latest production report, following up on its previous one released Aug. 29. That one was based on satellite imagery taken at the

Security forces detain a demonstrator during a protest on Sept. 21, 2022 in St. Petersburg against a mobilization of reservists ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Social media video screengrab obtained by Reuters)

CBOT weekly outlook: War chatter part of market chaos

Stronger U.S. dollar weighs on futures

MarketsFarm — With the daily talk about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Scott Capinegro, president of Barrington Commodities at Barrington, Ill., has a special term for its effects on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). “I call it the Putin rally,” he quipped, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin, but lamenting the chaos the seven-month-old war


Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (in degrees Celsius) for the week centred on Sept. 14, 2022. (CPC.ncep.noaa.gov)

La Nina set to continue for third year

Other weather patterns may override temporarily

MarketsFarm — With fall soon upon North America, there’s nothing overly unusual with the continuation of La Nina, according to Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. at Overland Park, Kansas. Going into its third year, some people might think this is the third consecutive La Nina — but Lerner said it’s the same one,

Cattle trickle in, but soon to rise sharply

Cattle trickle in, but soon to rise sharply

Heavy feeder steers and heifers show price improvements on the week

Most of Manitoba’s eight cattle auctions were in business during the week of Sept. 2-8, with cattle trickling in at some of the facilities — the exception being Ste. Rose Auction Mart, which on Sept. 8 sold 1,389 head. That equalled two-thirds of the week’s cattle. “The numbers aren’t really substantial yet. Nobody wants to be in the first sale,” said


(Dave Bedard photo)

StatCan’s canola call in line with expectations

Agency also boosts wheat projection

MarketsFarm — While Statistics Canada (StatCan) cut its projection for canola production in 2022-23 by 400,000 tonnes, FarmLink Marketing Solutions senior analyst Neil Townsend said the number could go lower. StatCan on Wednesday issued its latest production estimates and lowered its call on canola from the 19.5 million tonnes forecast in its Aug. 29 report

A cooking oil production line at Lianyungang in China’s Jiangsu province on Jan. 9, 2019. Concerns over COVID-19 have again raised uncertainty about vegetable oil demand.

Canola falls back

Flagging fortunes for crude and vegetable oils alike have added pressure

Canola continued to fall back during the week ended Sept. 1, pulled lower by a number of factors. Over the course of the week, the nearby November contract lost $21.70 per tonne, to close at $812/tonne on Sept. 1. The January 2023 contract was down pretty much the same amount, losing $21.30 at $821/tonne. In



File photo of wheat south of Ethelton, Sask. on Aug. 1, 2022. (Dave Bedard photo)

Prairies’ high-pressure ridge should give way by mid-month

Brisk harvest pace expected meanwhile

MarketsFarm — While there’s not one specific cause of the hot September the Canadian Prairies has generally been having so far, Weatherlogics chief scientist Scott Kehler notes one particular shorter-term factor. “There is a fairly strong upper-level ridge of high pressure across the Prairies right now,” he explained, adding it should dissipate by mid-month. The



ICE Futures November 2022 canola (candlesticks) with Bollinger bands (20,2). (Barchart)

ICE weekly outlook: Crush margins guiding canola demand

MarketsFarm — Enormous canola crush margins will lead to increased demand for the Canadian oilseed, according to MarketsFarm’s director of markets and weather Bruce Burnett. As of Tuesday, the nearby November-October margins were estimated at $215.51 per tonne, while the same position for November-October 2023 now stands at $124.48/tonne. This time last year their margins