Forecast issued March 11, covering March 11 to 18, 2026
Highlights
Read Also
OPINION: Canada’s shifting snowpack reveals water-loss location matters for agriculture
From the Prairies to the Great Lakes, uneven snowmelt patterns signal new era of water supply risk.
- A low pressure system is forecast to track across southern Alberta late Wednesday and into Thursday morning bringing snowfall amounts in the five to 10 cm range. A few areas could see closer to 15 cm of snow.
- Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see the same low move eastward bringing the chance of five to eight cm of snow late this week.
- Early next week, warmer air will push into Alberta but may struggle to displace Arctic air over Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Overview
Over the past week we saw a predominantly northwesterly flow across the Prairies. This pattern helped keep the coldest air bottled up over the northern half of the region. However, as expected during the transition into spring, there was considerable uncertainty regarding how areas of low pressure rippling along this boundary would behave.
Those systems brought a mixed bag of weather, ranging from rain to freezing rain and drizzle, along with some heavier bursts of wet snow. Temperatures also continued their rollercoaster ride, climbing into the low teens on one day before dropping into the negative teens a day or two later.
For this forecast period, it appears we will need to wait a little longer for spring to arrive. Weather models continue to show a northwesterly flow across the region, but this time the dividing line between mild and cold air has shifted slightly farther south. As a result, near to below-average temperatures are expected across much of the Prairies as Arctic high pressure strengthens, while the primary track for low-pressure systems runs along the Canada–U.S. border.
More weather coverage: Five reasons why there are seasons
The first of these systems is forecast to track across southern Alberta late Wednesday and into Thursday morning, bringing snowfall amounts in the five to 10 cm range, with a few locations possibly seeing totals closer to 15 cm. This low will move quickly eastward across southern Saskatchewan late on Thursday before clipping extreme southern Manitoba late Thursday night into early Friday.
Areas along the system’s path in southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba could receive a quick 5 to 8 cm of snow.
High pressure should dominate over the weekend, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies along with cooler conditions. Daytime highs are expected to range between -5°C and -10°C.
Early next week, warmer air is forecast to begin pushing northward into Alberta, bringing a return to milder temperatures. As this milder air advances north, precipitation may develop along the boundary between the warmer and colder air masses. This could bring some light snow to southern and central Saskatchewan on Tuesday and into Manitoba on Wednesday. As usual with forecasts several days out, particularly during spring, details may change.
Alberta
An area of low pressure is expected to develop late Wednesday as energy moves inland from the Pacific. This system is forecast to bring a quick burst of fairly heavy snow across much of southern Alberta, with five to 10 cm likely and locally higher amounts possible. In extreme southern regions, periods of rain or freezing rain may mix in at times.
Behind this system, Arctic high pressure will gradually build southward, bringing a mix of sun and cloud on Friday and Saturday along with cooler temperatures. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are expected to range from -4°C to -7°C, while central and northern regions see highs between -6°C and -10°C.
Late in the weekend and early next week, weather models indicate a large area of low pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska. This will help push milder air northward into Alberta. Daytime highs across southern Alberta are expected to climb above freezing by Sunday, potentially reaching around 10 C by Tuesday.
Farther north, daytime highs should warm toward the freezing mark on Sunday and into the 2°C to 5°C range by Monday and Tuesday. There are also indications that some energy from the Gulf of Alaska system may move inland on Tuesday, which will bring a chance of light snow to far northern regions.
Unfortunately, the warmer air does not appear likely to last long, as models currently suggest cooler air pushing southward again later in the week.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
This forecast period begins with weak Arctic high pressure in place across both provinces. On Wednesday, this will bring a mix of sun and cloud along with temperatures near to slightly below average.
On Thursday, a low-pressure system moving east from Alberta is expected to bring increasing cloudiness along with a good chance of measurable snowfall, particularly south of the Trans-Canada Highway. Current indications suggest snowfall amounts in the five to eight cm range. The system will continue southeastward Thursday night, bringing similar amounts of snow to western Manitoba and then to extreme southern Manitoba late Thursday into early Friday morning before moving away.
More weather coverage: Southern Prairies brace for dry spring after below-normal winter
Over the weekend, Arctic high pressure will build southward once again, bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures. Daytime highs are expected to range from -5°C to -8°C, with overnight lows dropping to around -20°C. The good news is that winds should remain light, and with the strengthening spring sunshine conditions should feel fairly pleasant despite the cooler temperatures.
Early next week, warmer air will begin pushing northward into Alberta. This milder air will attempt to spread eastward but may struggle to displace the colder Arctic air currently in place across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Temperatures should begin to moderate gradually, with extreme southern regions approaching the freezing mark by Tuesday.
Along the boundary between the warmer and colder air masses, models suggest light snow or flurries may develop over Saskatchewan on Tuesday. They’ll then spread into Manitoba on Wednesday. Confidence in this part of the forecast remains relatively low at this time. Looking further ahead, the weather models are still not showing a sustained push of true spring conditions across the Prairies.
