U.S. grains: Soy hits 2-yr lows on South American crop prospects, demand worries

Chinese demand less certain as real estate crisis deepens there

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Published: January 29, 2024

CBOT Soybeans ZSH24 on Jan. 29, 2014 with Bollinger bands. (Barchart)

Chicago | Reuters –– U.S. soybean futures fell to two-year lows below $12 a bushel on Monday, pressured by improving prospects for large South American harvests and worries about demand as top global soy buyer China struggles with a real estate crisis, analysts said.

Corn futures hit their lowest in more than a week and wheat notched a one-week low as declines in crude oil CLc1 and a stronger U.S. dollar added to bearish sentiment in grains.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) March soybeans SH24 settled down 15 cents at $11.94-1/4 per bushel after dipping to $11.91-1/2, the lowest on a continuous chart of the most-active contract Sv1 since November 2021.

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CBOT March corn CH24 ended down 6 cents at $4.40-1/4 a bushel and March wheat WH24 was fell 6-3/4 cents to finish at $5.93-1/2 a bushel.

Soybean futures sagged as traders focused on rising expectations for large crops in Argentina and Brazil despite periods of stressful weather in both countries.

“Fear about weather in South America has gone, which in turn leads to worry about lack of demand for U.S. soybeans and corn. Should soybean demand from China return in the near future, this is likely to be met with Brazilian supplies,” said Matt Ammermann, StoneX commodity risk manager.

Chinese demand for commodities seemed less certain, analysts said, as a real estate crisis deepened with a Hong Kong court ordering the liquidation of property giant China Evergrande Group.

“With the China economic news, there is still a worry about their economy over there. That is part of the problem today,” said Sherman Newlin, an Illinois farmer and analyst with Risk Management Commodities.

Soy product futures were mixed. As soybeans declined, March soybean oil futures BOH24fell 2.9 per cent while March soymeal SMH24 bounced to end up 1.5 per cent after setting a life-of-contract low.

Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week amid oversupply pressure in the Black Sea region, but export volumes have gone up, analysts said.

–Additional reporting for Reuters by Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Peter Hobson in Canberra.

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