The United States Department of Agriculture has released its monthly World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates, which usually come with the potential to upset U.S. crop prices if they fail to fall in line with pre-report expectations.
Just like the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 8, there was no “red wave” sweeping the markets after the report’s release. Soybean prices were largely unaffected and settled higher, while wheat prices were additionally pressured but already trading lower pre-report.
The December corn contract was trading at US$6.6250 per bushel minutes prior to the report, but it briefly hit its lowest price since Sept. 2 at $6.58/bu. and eventually settled at $6.6450/bu. Although the close was down only three cents from the previous day, it was still corn’s lowest close since Sept. 1.
Read Also
Canola market sees up and down week
Canola futures endured a topsy-turvy week ended July 17, 2025, with most ICE contracts seeing net gains of about C$15 per tonne.
While corn prices are not at their mid-summer depths, the crop has shown relative weakness over the past month. The December contract last broke the $7/bu. plateau on Oct. 11, but it hasn’t settled above that level since June 21.
[RELATED] CBOT weekly outlook: Rising U.S. corn, soy yields ‘a little surprising’
The WASDE report did not help matters when the USDA’s estimate for domestic corn production was raised by 35 million bushels to 13.93 billion, albeit near the lower end of pre-report expectations.
U.S. ending stocks were estimated at 1.182 billion bushels, 10 million more than October’s estimate, but below trade expectations and the lowest in a decade.
Meanwhile, global corn production decreased by 670,000 tonnes to 307.68 million, while global ending stocks also declined 430,000 tonnes to 300.76 million, in line with trade.
If U.S. corn prices are to break the psychological $7/bu. ceiling and stay there, supply would need to go down and/or demand would need to go up in order to get a price boost. The USDA cut its exports estimate by 125 million bushels from October to 2.15 billion. Meanwhile, export sales of U.S. corn have been below normal so far this year.
[RELATED] U.S. grain markets: Soybeans follow soybean oil lower
The USDA held its corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina steady at 126 million tonnes and 55 million tonnes, respectively. Both countries have recently been the recipients of good weather, aiding their corn crops.
While there are many factors causing corn to be bearish, Russia’s agreement to allow Ukrainian grain shipments on the Black Sea is a wild card. Russia flip-flopped on its earlier suspension of the agreement last week, but negotiations are needed to extend it past the original expiration date of Nov. 19. Upcoming completion of harvesting activities in the U.S. corn belt should also lift prices.
Wheat fell between 12 and 21 U.S. cents per bushel on Nov. 9, but any ideas of ongoing weakness should be taken with a grain of salt. The conflict in Ukraine can unnerve markets in an instant, while drought in Argentina and heavy rains in Australia are reducing crop quality. Despite the price drop, estimates for U.S. ending stocks slightly declined, while those for global ending stocks slightly increased.
Soybeans settled higher after the WASDE report, and while the USDA slightly raised its estimate for U.S. ending stocks, the total of 220 million bushels is the lowest in seven years. Global ending stocks rose to 102.17 million tonnes, but wide crush margins will keep the crop high in demand. A 1.5 million tonne decrease in Argentina’s production forecast should also help prices.
Record-high crush margins have been a boon for canola prices, but not enough to settle above $900 in recent weeks. The demand needed to maintain those crush margins could put canola prices over the top, but it’s more likely those margins will come down first. Vegetable and crude oil markets, as well as the Canadian dollar value, will determine canola’s movement.
