Farm office FranceAgriMer has increased sharply its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season as it anticipated France would replace some of the Black Sea trade disrupted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Importers are seeking alternatives to Ukrainian and Russian supplies, which usually account for about 30 per cent of the world’s wheat exports, as the conflict has closed Ukrainian ports and triggered severe western sanctions against Moscow.
The war may prevent up to 12 million to 14 million tonnes of previously expected Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports in the rest of 2021-22, Marc Zribi, head of FranceAgriMer’s grains unit, told reporters.
Read Also
Market impacts of canola headlines need digesting
January 2026 has been quite the month for Canadian canola trade, how will it all ripple out in the market?
“This could represent a shortfall for the world market in the second half of the season and make it extremely difficult to resolve the supply equation,” he said.
French soft wheat exports in 2021-22 were seen at 9.7 million tonnes, up from 8.9 million estimated in February, FranceAgriMer said.
That led the office to reduce its projection of French soft wheat stocks by the end of the season in June to 3.0 million tonnes from 3.6 million last month.
The reduced stocks forecast left potential for another 500,000 to one million tonnes in further French exports, Zribi said, but said exports would depend on domestic demand and the uncertain impact of the conflict in Ukraine.
