MarketsFarm — With declines in canola following Statistics Canada’s bullish-leaning projections for acres, it’s becoming more difficult to determine which way prices will trend in coming weeks and months.
“Where are prices going to go? In any given year that’s challenging, especially in this year,” said David Derwin, analyst for PI Financial in Winnipeg.
“That has a lot to do with the weather, because very often these weather-driven rallies tend to peak at the end of June and the beginning of July.”
Read Also
Farmers, traders ‘flying blind’ as U.S. shutdown blocks key crop data
U.S. data vital to global grain and soybean trading has gone dark during the country’s federal government shutdown, leaving commodity traders and farmers without crop production estimates, export sales data and market reports during the peak of the autumn harvest.
Very dry conditions across much of the Prairies have posed a challenge to canola producers this year. In some cases, it’s not only the topsoil that lacks sufficient moisture, but also the subsoil reserves.
While Statistics Canada has called for 21.5 million acres of canola to be seeded this spring, the dryness in Western Canada could lead to reduced yields if rain doesn’t come in time.
“Moisture at seeding time doesn’t make or break it. You can still have pretty good crops if you get good rains over the next few months after seeding,” Derwin said.
That, he said, brings producers to another factor: having patience while not being complacent.
“You want to be ready to look at hedging strategies. Options are playing a very important role in the marketing of grain this year, because it’s not just the price factor…but options can help manage the production risk and delivery commitment.”
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
