Forecast: Warmer temperatures, but wet days ahead

Issued April 11, 2016 – Covering the period from April 13 to April 20, 2016

I pointed out early this month that we would be seeing a change in our weather pattern around the middle of the month; it looks more and more like this will exactly be the case, but what will this change look and feel like?

At first it looked as though we were going to see a 180-degree flip, with very warm and dry weather building in. Over the last few model runs, the weather models have taken what I would say is a turn for the worst. It definitely looks like it will be getting warmer — but now it also looks like it will start off with some fairly wet weather.

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The latest model run shows a deep trough of low pressure developing to our west. This will allow our flow to become southerly by Wednesday which will start pushing milder air into our region. We should see daytime highs into the low to mid-teens on Wednesday, with overnight lows staying above the freezing mark. Originally the weather models were keeping this western trough to our west but now they show a strong upper low breaking off and taking up residence to our south starting on Thursday. This upper low will help to bring clouds, showers and cooler temperatures right through next weekend before it finally moves off to the east. It will be cooler than expected but should stay warm enough that any precipitation which falls should be rain.

It looks like we finally see some sunshine and drier weather by Monday or Tuesday of next week as high pressure builds in behind the departing upper low. Temperatures look to be mild, with daytime highs expected to be near the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.

Looking further ahead, the weather models point toward seasonable temperatures during the last week or two of April, with some signs of above-average temperatures moving in.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, +4 to +17 C; lows, -6 to +3 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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