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Weather: A cooler end to the month

Forecast covering the period from August 25 to September 1

This graphic shows the precipitation anomaly for the Winnipeg region from 1999 to 2021, using Environment Canada’s average precipitation data from 1981 to 2010 as a baseline (the zero line on the map) and precipitation data as recorded at my home weather station. The red line represents the average amount of precipitation; the blue line represents how much of a surplus or deficit (anomaly) has been accumulating since 1999. Between 1999 and 2010 precipitation amounts were close to average. From 2010 onward, all years have been in a precipitation deficit, with an accumulated deficit of over one metre by 2021.

As I work on creating this forecast, for the first time in several months, a large area of low pressure is poised to move through southern and central Manitoba, bringing with it the first widespread rains in a long time. The big question is whether this is a switch in the hot, dry pattern we have been in, a sign of a gradual shift, or simply a one-off weather event.

This forecast period will begin with high pressure building in behind the series of lows that brought an extended period of unsettled weather to our region. We should see plenty of sunshine from Wednesday to Friday along with seasonable temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the low to maybe mid-20s with overnight lows falling to around 10 C.

By the weekend (Aug. 28-29), the weather models show an area of low pressure moving in from the southwest. This low will bring cloudy skies along with a good chance of showers and maybe the odd thundershower. There is not a lot of confidence in the exact timing of this system as showers could move in as early as Friday afternoon or wait until sometime on Saturday. The system looks like it will be moving quickly and should push off to the northeast by Sunday, allowing a return to sunny skies to end the weekend.

To end the month, it looks like the flow across our region will become westerly. This will result in a series of weak highs and lows quickly moving through. Expect most days to be a mix of sun and clouds with the odd shower. Daytime highs will be in the low 20s with overnight lows falling into the low teens. Looking further ahead toward the long weekend, the weather models hint at a return to hotter weather as upper ridging tries to redevelop.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 18 to 27 C; lows, 6 to 13 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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