Forecast: Warmer with a chance of thundershowers

Issued May 27, 2019: Covering the period from May 29 to June 5

This map shows Palmer Drought Index values across the Prairies as of May 20. This index takes into account temperature readings and precipitation amounts to try and model soil moisture and long-term drought. Negative values mean drought conditions, with -2 values meaning moderate drought conditions, -3 severe drought, and -4 extreme. A fairly large area is in the -2 range, with a few locations in all three provinces within the -3 range.

The weather models now consistently show a break in our weather pattern with a more seasonable pattern developing. This means warmer temperatures, and while it doesn’t look like we will see any big storm systems, with warmer weather comes the risk of thunderstorms.

We begin this forecast period with a broad ridge of high pressure building across the Prairies. This will give us plenty of sunshine along with warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the 23 to 26 C range with overnight lows in the 7 to 10 C range. On Friday the weather models show a weak area of low pressure dropping southeastward through southern Manitoba. This low will bring a mix of sun and clouds by Friday afternoon along with the chance of some showers or thundershowers. Currently, it looks like the clouds and showers will move off to the southeast by Saturday morning, giving us a nice sunny and mild weekend. Saturday will be a little cooler, with highs expected to be around 18 C, but by Sunday the strong June sunshine will help to boost temperatures back into the low 20s.

Temperatures will continue to warm going into next week as a trough of low pressure develops to our west. This trough will help to pull up summer-like air into our region starting on Monday. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid- to upper 20s and an increase in humidity. This will help keep overnight lows fairly mild, with the latest predictions showing lows in the 12 to 15 C range. The trough is expected to push through late on Tuesday, bringing with it a good chance of showers and thundershowers.

Slightly cooler and a little unsettled weather move in on Wednesday and Thursday as the low slowly moves off to the east. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with a few widely scattered showers on both days and daytime highs right around 20 C and overnight lows around 8 C. Looking further ahead the weather models show another shot of warm weather moving in just in time for the weekend.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 17 to 28 C; lows, 4 to 14 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications