Showers and thundershowers in our forecast

Issued: Monday, May 4, 2015 – Covering: May 6 – May 13, 2015

Last week’s forecast played out pretty much as expected, with the only deviation from the weather models coming from the timing of the cold front that pushed across Manitoba over the weekend. The original forecast had the front coming through late Sunday, but instead it came through Saturday afternoon. We also saw temperatures make it into the mid-20s by the end of the month, as the weather models hinted.

For the first half of this forecast period, we’ll be dealing with a large area of low pressure slowly sliding up from the southwest. This system looks to have a fair bit of moisture to work with, something we haven’t really seen so far this spring. It will also have a good deal of warm air with it, so I don’t see any chance of snow with this system, even on the cool back end.

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We should begin to see and feel the effects of this system on Wednesday, with increasing clouds and showers, along with the possibility of late-day thundershowers. The weather models are having a tough time figuring out the exact track of this system and where most of the rain will fall, because of the convective nature of the system. That said, there will be a good chance of significant rain late Wednesday and through the day Thursday. It doesn’t look like it will be a continuous rain event, and not all regions will see significant rain, but expect some heavy amounts.

This low will move out quickly and by the weekend arctic high pressure will drop south, bringing clear skies and cooler temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid-teens, with overnight lows near the freezing mark on Saturday and Sunday morning.

Next week we should see temperatures warm as the high slides off to the East and low pressure begins to develop to our southwest once again. Expect highs to moderate towards the 20 C mark by Wednesday, then stay in the low 20s for highs during the remainder of the week.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 10 to 22 C; lows, -2 to +8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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