Leaning toward milder conditions

Issued: Monday, Mar. 23, 2015 – Covering: Mar. 25 – April 1, 2015

weather map

The weather played out pretty much as the models predicted for last week, except in western regions. The models kept any precipitation and clouds well to our west, but this boundary between dry, cool air and moist air set up close enough that southwestern regions saw more clouds than sun, along with occasional light snow.

The models also hinted at a mid-week weather system that could bring some significant precipitation to our region, and they still show this happening. It’s always tough writing forecasts on Monday for you to read on Wednesday and Thursday, when there’s the possibility of a significant weather event on the Tuesday and Wednesday. This low will be a tough one to figure out, as the main low will be well to our south, with a trough stretching north into southern Manitoba. These setups, especially in the spring, can bring significant amounts of precipitation. If we get a big dump of snow, the rest of this forecast will be affected.

Most regions should see around five centimetres of snow from this system, with some areas seeing up to 10 cm. This low will then be followed by an area of high pressure that should bring plenty of sunshine, along with temperatures right around the freezing mark — colder if there’s a lot of new snow. This high will drift to our south on Friday and Saturday allowing for milder air to be pulled up, pushing daytime highs into the 5 to 8 C range. Another area of low pressure is then forecast to track southeastward across central and eastern Manitoba on Sunday bringing clouds, showers and later that day, some snow.

Sunny skies should move back in late Monday and we should see sunny and fairly nice conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the 6 to 10 C range and overnight lows around -5 C. Looking further ahead, the models bounce back and forth between seasonal to cool conditions and mild weather returning. I’m betting on the mild forecast.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -5 to +8 C; lows, -18 to -3 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 85 per cent.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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