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Forecast: Winter settling back in over Manitoba

Issued March 6, 2017 – Covering the period from March 8 to March 15, 2017

As I write this forecast late Sunday evening, all eyes are turned toward a major storm system that is forecast to affect pretty much all of Manitoba on Monday and Tuesday. As you read this, you’re likely just finishing digging out from the first major snowfall since early January, or you’re trying to clean up the mess the mixture of rain, then snow brought to your region.

As is typical with major winter storm systems, cold high pressure will follow and should be pushing into our region on Wednesday. The core of this high looks as if it will stay to our north, keeping back the coldest weather. It looks like Friday morning will be the coldest, with western and northern regions likely seeing overnight lows in the -22 C range.

The overall pattern over the next week or two looks to remain on the cold side as our flow becomes northwesterly. Several areas of low pressure are forecast to move through this flow, bringing the chance of snow every few days. The big question is just where the main low track will set up. Currently, the weather models show it setting up right along the U.S. border. Areas to the south of this line will see near-average temperatures while those to the north will be a little cooler than average.

The first low is expected to move through on Saturday bringing a good chance of light snow to southern parts of Manitoba. A secondary low is then forecast to develop on Sunday that could bring some measurable snow to eastern regions. Two areas of cool high pressure are then forecast to move through Saskatchewan and track southeast through North Dakota. The first high will push by on Monday, bringing sunshine and cool temperatures. A second high will follow the same path on Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of cool/cold weather. In between these two systems we could see a weak low zip through, bringing some clouds along with a flurry or two. Expect temperatures to run near the lower end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -11 to +2 C; lows, -23 to -8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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