If I’ve said it once, I have said it at least a hundred times: Forecasting the weather at this time of the year is hard. If you have been following the weather models over the last couple of weeks you would know what I mean. One day they forecast a big warm-up and next a big cool-down. We saw this play out last week. The weather models kept the warm air to our south last weekend and into the early part of this week, but that warm air was able to push farther north, bringing nice mild conditions to our region.
For this forecast period, it appears the weather models are settling in on a pattern, but with all the flip-flopping they have been doing, confidence in this issue’s forecast is low. The weather models all begin this forecast period with a trough of low pressure tracking through southern and central Manitoba that will bring mostly snow. Expect accumulations in the two- to five-centimetre range — but exactly where most of the snow will fall is a little uncertain.
Behind this low it looks like cool arctic air will spill southward, bringing what looks to be about a week-long cold snap. A very large area of arctic high pressure will be parked well to our north, but this high will send repeated shots of cold air southward. With very cold air aloft and strong spring sunshine, we will likely see a mix of sun and clouds on most days with the chance of scattered flurries. Expect daytime highs to struggle to reach the freezing mark, with overnight lows dropping into the mid-minus teens, near the bottom end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.
Looking further ahead, the models point toward milder weather returning later next week.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -4 to +9 C; lows, -16 to -3 C.