Your Reading List

Forecast: Up-and-down weather ahead

Covering the period from September 23 to October 2, 2019

This map shows the CanSIPS weather model’s forecasted temperature anomalies for the upcoming November-to-January period. This weather model shows above-average temperatures right across the Prairies. Temperatures, according to the model, are forecast to be anywhere from 0.75 C to over 2 C above average.

I’m starting to see a bit of a trend in these forecasts since I began having an earlier deadline. Understandably, the first half of the forecast is playing out pretty well, but then the timings and locations of systems start to drift off as we get further into the future. With that said, the first part of last issue’s forecast correctly predicted the heat and humidity. In fact, it ended up a little warmer and more humid than even I thought it would be. As we headed toward last weekend things fell apart as the western low ended up taking until the weekend to fully push through our region.

For this forecast period it looks like we’ll begin dry and mild, as a ridge of high pressure rebounds behind the low that tracked through our region over the weekend. Expect daytime highs around the 20 C mark with overnight lows around 10 C. Around the middle of this week the weather models show an area of low pressure with a trough extending to the south sweeping through Manitoba and bringing clouds and showers. The best chances for significant rain look to be across central regions.

Behind this low, cooler air will work its way southward on Thursday and Friday, dropping daytime highs down to around 12 C with overnight lows in the 4 C range. Scattered frost is possible on Friday and Saturday morning as winds look to be light. Areas with mainly clear skies will have the best chance of seeing frost.

Over the weekend and into the early part of next week the weather models show an area of low pressure developing to our southwest and slowly tracking to the northeast. This low is forecast to bring clouds and showers to southern regions beginning late in the weekend and lasting into the first part of next week. Once this low pushes off to the east, the models show more cool air moving in as an arctic high builds southward.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 10 to 21 C; lows, -1 to 8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.



Stories from our other publications