Forecast: Hot, humid weather pulls back

Covering the period from August 5 to August 12

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that fell during the 30-day period ending on July 29th as a percent of the long-term average. Looking at the map there is an interesting pattern of above- near-, and below-average amounts that is indicative of rainfall falling mostly from thunderstorms. The two dry areas are found around and just north of Winnipeg and around Saskatoon. Wet regions are scattered all over, with the wettest area, compared to average, found in the region starting near Calgary and stretching northeastwards into Saskatchewan.

Well, I think to a lot of people’s relief, the building upper ridge that was forecasted to bring more extreme heat and humidity to our region during the last forecast period ended up staying a little farther to our west. The result of this shift was warm but more comfortable temperatures with a few added thunderstorms, especially over western regions.

For this forecast period, the weather models are showing a bit of shift in the large-scale weather pattern across North America that began during the last forecast period. The main models are showing a building ridge of high pressure over western North America with stormy unsettled conditions over central regions. The models are currently keeping this unsettled weather to our south, but it is something we need to keep an eye on.

To begin this forecast period there will be a large area of surface high pressure to our east that should continue to bring us sunny skies and nice midsummer temperatures. The weather models then show a trough of low pressure pushing through our region on Thursday that will bring a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of the odd shower or thundershower. To end the week and over the weekend (Aug. 7-9), it looks like we will be between systems as an area of low pressure slowly organizes to our southwest.

Expect mostly sunny skies along with daytime highs in the mid- to upper 20s and overnight lows falling into the mid-teens.

Early next week (Aug. 10), the weather models are showing the southwestern low kicking northeastwards, bringing increasing clouds along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Confidence in this part of the forecast is low, but the models are showing the most significant chances for rain staying well north of our forecast region.

Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 20 to 30 C: lows 10 to 16 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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