What can I say? I’m only as good as the weather models, and when trying to create a seven- to 10-day forecast five days in advance, there are going to be times when the forecast is off — sometimes way off. This is exactly what happened in the last forecast. Within a day or two of writing the forecast, the weather models radically changed, coming into agreement about the big storm that hit us.

For this forecast period, I am a little concerned. The weather models as of late have been leaning toward a much drier period. That said, there are storm systems predicted to be nearby and occasionally, the latest model runs deviate from the dry forecast to a much wetter one.

Keeping that in mind, here’s how the weather looks to shape up over the next week or two. This forecast period should begin with a Colorado low tracking by to our southeast, bringing some clouds and maybe a few showers to southeastern regions during the first half of the week. Behind this low, colder air will work southward, bringing the first well-below-zero temperatures of the fall. Expect overnight lows to drop into the -6 to -10 C range by late in the week.

The weather models then show an area of low pressure tracking across north-central Manitoba over the weekend. This should bring a brief warm-up to southern regions as the low pulls warm air up from the south. The northern half of central Manitoba will see some showers or light rain as the low passes through. Behind the low we will see cooler air move in as modified arctic air drops in from the north. Expect daytime highs in the low single digits with overnight lows dropping back down to the -5 to -8 C range.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 1 to 16 C; lows, -6 to +3 C.

Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 40 per cent.