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Forecast: Cold weather start, then a warm up

Covering the period from November 14 to November 20, 2019

Last week’s forecast wasn’t as far off as it may have seemed. It’s always tough to make a forecast when you are dealing with strong highs and weak lows, as you never really know which one will win out and just how the timing will work out.

This is what we saw with last week’s forecast. Strong arctic high pressure dominated our region for most of the forecast period, but we did see a couple of lows track through, with each low being off by a day or so from what the original forecast predicted.

For this forecast period it is looking like we will see more dry weather as the main storm track remains quiet across our region. It also looks like we will see warming temperatures, but not until another arctic high drops in during the first half of this week. Currently, it looks like this high could bring the coldest readings so far this fall/winter, with overnight lows expected to be in the -20 C range and daytime highs around -10 C. Luckily, it looks like winds will be light during the coldest period.

As the arctic high pushes off to the east, the flow across our region will become westerly, allowing milder Pacific air to begin moving in. Expect daytime highs to moderate to around -3 C by late in the week, with overnight lows warming to around -10 C. The weather models are showing a weak area of low pressure tracking through central regions over the weekend, bringing increasing clouds along with the chance of some flurries or light snow. Best chance for any measurable snowfall would be over central regions.

The weather models are then showing a strong Pacific high pushing in to start next week. This high will bring plenty of sunshine along with warm temperatures across nearly all of Manitoba by Monday. Daytime highs are forecasted to push into the +3 to +5 C range, with overnight lows only falling to around -3 C. We will likely see a bit of a cool-down around the middle of next week as an area of low pressure tracks by to our north, dragging a cold front with it.

Usual temperature range for this period: highs: -8 to 5 C; lows: -17 to -4 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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