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Forecast: A slow warming trend ahead

Issued April 29, 2019: Covering the period from May 1 to May 8

This map shows the total amount of precipitation that has fallen across the Prairies during the 30 days ending April 25. Unfortunately, at press time, a more recently updated map showing the precipitation amount from the late-April snowstorm that hit southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was not available. Most regions saw less than 15 mm of precipitation during this time frame, with a large part of southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan reporting less than two mm.

Once again, last week’s forecast quickly fell apart as cool high pressure combined with a retrograding upper low over Northern Canada played havoc with the forecast. What looked to be a fairly wet period turned out to be dry, as the forecast areas of low pressure were pushed to our south with only far western and extreme southern regions seeing any measurable precipitation.

Things look as though they’ll be fairly unsettled this forecast period as the northern upper low slowly drops southward and weakens before getting caught up in the westerly flow when it will be pushed off to the east. This upper low will take until Saturday or Sunday to finally meander out of our region. Most days will see more clouds than sun, with chances for daytime showers or overnight flurries. It doesn’t look like much in the way of measurable precipitation during this time, but without much in the way of sunshine things will feel a little damp. Temperatures will be cool, with daytime highs struggling to make it into the 7 to 10 C range and overnight lows falling to near or slightly below freezing. Any areas that do end up with several hours of sunshine on any given day will see slightly warmer temperatures.

Once this upper low finally moves off to the east sometime over the weekend we should see high pressure build in, bringing a return to sunshine along with warmer temperatures. Expect daytime highs to warm into the mid-teens during the first half of next week with overnight lows continuing to run right around the freezing mark (primarily due to the fairly dry air mass).

It looks as though seasonable temperatures will continue into the second half of next week as the overall flow across our region becomes more westerly.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 9 to 23 C; lows, -2 to 8 C.

About the author

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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