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Prairie forecast: Warm but unsettled weather

Forecast issued Aug. 21, covering Aug. 21 to 28, 2024

Last week's forecast got off to a rough start. The area of low pressure that pushed through the eastern Prairies ended up as a large upper level low. Because those are slow to move out, they can affect systems trying to move east by backing them up or forcing them to take a different path. So, while the overall pressure pattern across the Prairies was still slack as forecasted, the details got all messed up.

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Prairie forecast: Weak systems make for tricky forecast

Forecast issued Aug. 14, covering Aug. 14 to 21, 2024

The slack or weak pattern looks to continue into much of next week, which makes it difficult to pinpoint which areas could see showers or thunderstorms, and on which days. Best chances for precipitation look to be over the eastern Prairies. This type of pattern also makes it difficult to predict where forest fire smoke will be.


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Prairie forecast: Temperatures to warm up

Forecast issued Aug. 7, covering Aug. 7 to 14, 2024

For this forecast period, it's looking like the forecasted strong area of high pressure is going to dominate the weather across the Prairies. This should bring plenty of sunshine and warming temperatures. Overnight lows look to be seasonable, so at this point it doesn't look like we'll see heat warnings—but as usual you just never know.

(Photo courtesy Canada Beef Inc.)

Prairie forecast: Cooler weather coming, but little precipitation

Forecast issued July 31, covering July 31 to August 7, 2024

It's looking like we'll soon see an end to the hot conditions of the last few weeks as upper ridging collapses and the upper flow across the Prairies moves to a straight west-to-east flow. Under this pattern, we should see textbook summer conditions. The only downside is there aren't many chances of precipitation.

File photo of wheat south of Ethelton, Sask. on Aug. 1, 2022. (Dave Bedard photo)

Prairie forecast: Heatwave coming to an end

Forecast issued July 24 covering July 24 to 31, 2024

Southern Alberta, southern and central Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see another day or two of hot weather before the northern low drags a cold front southward, which will bring an end to this extended heatwave.


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Prairie forecast: Prolonged heatwave expected

Forecast issued July 17, covering July 17 to 24, 2024

The second heatwave of the summer appears to be establishing itself across the Prairies. This heatwave looks to last the whole forecast period as a strong upper ridge builds over central North America. Intense heat will stretch from the southern U.S. to the Arctic ocean.

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Prairie forecast: More typical summer weather

Forecast issued July 10, covering July 10 to 17, 2024

For this forecast period, it looks like the upper ridge will slowly flatten and drop southwards as a series of weak lows track across the northern Prairies. This will result in a reduction in the extreme temperatures. Daytime highs and overnight lows should fall back to more seasonable values.

The canola market has been fluctuating wildly.

Prairie forecast: A switch in the weather pattern?

Forecast issued July 3, covering July 3 to 10, 2024

Over the last couple weeks, I've been asked repeatedly, “when will summer actually get here?” This is especially true over the eastern Prairies. It just doesn't and hasn’t felt like summer yet. Well, it looks like the cool, unsettled weather pattern will be breaking down during this forecast period. This will allow much more summer-like temperature to move in.


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Prairie forecast: A slow slide into summer

Forecast issued June 26, covering June 26 to July 3, 2024

For a change, this forecast period starts of with weak high pressure in place across the Prairies. This brings a mix of sun and clouds and near-average temperatures. Any below-average temperatures are the thanks to the return flow behind the strong area of low pressure which, as predicted, tracked across the central and northern Prairies and brought all sorts of severe weather earlier this week.