Ice crystals and snow whipped up by winter winds catch the sun near Russell, Man.

Mythbusting the folklore of winter forecasts

Can Manitoba’s fall really predict future winter weather? From early leaf drop to when the birds leave, there are plenty of old sayings, but how much fact is there behind the folklore?

Can Manitoba’s fall really predict future winter weather? From early leaf drop to when the birds leave, there are plenty of old sayings, but how much fact is there behind the folklore?

A soybean crop in central Manitoba Sept. 9, several days after frost hit the region. Photo: Alexis Stockford

Manitoba soybeans dodge frost damage

Frost hit large parts of Manitoba in early September, but wasn’t prevalent or long-lasting enough to cause concern for soybean fields

Frost hit large swaths of Manitoba in early September, but wasn’t prevalent or long-lasting enough to cause concern for soybean fields.


Photo: ShaunL/Getty Images Plus

Prairie forecast: Summer holds on

Once again, the weather models did a good job with the last forecast. It correctly predicted the cool weather pattern over the eastern Prairies, which did bring some light scattered frosts late last week. It also was correct about the return of warm temperatures to start this week. Meanwhile, the western Prairies saw plenty of



weekly weather map jpeg

Warmer than average August

Warm weather forecasted to continue in September

Manitoba forecaster Daniel Bezte reviews the outcome of Prairie temperature and rainfall predictions for August from sources including weather models, the almanacs and himself, then looks ahead to September.

Photo: Wirestock/Getty Images Plus

Prairie forecast: Cool east, warm west

Forecast issued September 3, covering Sept. 3 to 10, 2025

We start this period with a large upper low over northern Ontario, an area of Arctic high pressure building southwards over Manitoba and strong but narrow upper ridge of high pressure over B.C. This particular setup is going to bring cool temperatures over the eastern Prairies for the next several days. Western regions will stay on the mild side.


Photo: Sonia Third

Prairie forecast: Warm and dry for the long weekend

Forecast issued August 27, covering Aug. 27 to Sept. 3, 2025

This forecast period is looking straightforward as surface high pressure and upper-level ridging looks to dominate the forecast. This should bring what looks to be an extended period of sunny skies and warm to hot temperatures.

Weekly weather map in JPEG for Aug 21 MCO.

Warmer and wetter future for Prairie farms

Higher humidity and intense rainfall events are all but inevitable as the planet warms

Warming oceans and warming air translate to more humidity. For Manitoba farmers, greater availability of water vapour will make it more likely for precipitation events to tend to the extreme.


 Photo: E+/Getty Images

Prairie forecast: Sunny, warm end to the month

Forecast issued August 20, covering Aug. 20 to 27, 2025

To start this forecast period, we have an area of low pressure developing over Montana. This will help bring one more day of intense heat over southern Saskatchewan and a hot day over Manitoba. That same low will bring partly cloudy skies and the chance of showers to a good portion of Alberta.

weather map as JPEG Aug 14 MCO

Prairie heatwaves and upper highs

Sunshine and sinking air mean rising temperatures for the Prairies

Weather expert Daniel Bezte looks at heat waves and the climate factors that lead to extended periods of high heat in the Prairies.