INSIDE GRAIN MARKETS DEC. 3: U.S. soybean prices, if they go up, could spill over into canola market for Canadian farmers
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Oils could shake up canola market
GRAIN MARKETS ANALYSIS DEC. 3: Soybean prices could spill over and break canola out of its sideways trend
Calling for bigger crops ahead of StatCan report
Statistics Canada will release its first survey-based production estimates for the 2025/26 crop year on Dec. 4, with general expectations for upward revisions to most major crops from the model-based estimates in September. However, as StatCan has shown a tendency to underestimate production in its December reports, many analysts expect actual production may be revised upward in subsequent reports.
AAFC makes few changes to November S/D report
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada made only a handful of alterations for its November report on principal field crops. The only changes AAFC made were with all wheat and durum exports plus domestic use for all wheat and corn in the estimates released on Nov. 24. The report had been initially scheduled for Nov. 19, but AAFC said they chose to delay it until after the United States Department of Agriculture issued its November supply and demand estimates following the U.S. government shutdown.
ICE Canada Weekly: Canola likely to remain rangebound
Canadian canola futures are poised to slip back in the short term, although the oilseed could climb slowly higher in the long term, said Jamie Wilton, trader with R.J. O’Brien in Winnipeg, Man.
CBOT Weekly: Trade awaits USDA S/D report
Regardless of the United States government shutdown ending soon or not, the Department of Agriculture is set to issue its supply and demand report on Nov. 14. The USDA cancelled its October edition of World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates due to the shutdown and pushed back their November report a few days.
Notable changes in exports to China, India
China and India figured prominently in the September export data issued by the Canadian Grain Commission on Nov. 7. For the most part, the CGC’s numbers highlighted issues with grain, oilseed and pulse exports from licensed facilities to those countries.
ICE Canada Weekly: Canola could climb higher through to spring
With harvest pressure on canola over, the Canadian oilseed could track higher until spring, said David Derwin, commodity futures advisor for Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, Man. Although he cautioned there will be some rough patches along the way.
Sigurdson applauds Alberta farmers
With Alberta’s harvest virtually wrapped up for 2025, provincial Agriculture Minister RJ Sigurdson offered the government’s congratulations to the province’s farmers.
Most of Manitoba harvest wraps up for 2025
Manitoba Agriculture issued its final crop report of 2025, showing the overall provincewide harvest at 97 per cent complete as of Oct. 20. Nearly all major crops have finished combining, with 37 per cent of Manitoba’s sunflowers finished, plus 71 per cent of grain corn and small amounts of soybeans and potatoes left to do.
ICE Weekly: No upside for canola if China situation continues: trader
Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities said canola should stay rangebound if Canada’s trade war with China continues.
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