With harvest pressure on canola over, the Canadian oilseed could track higher until spring, said David Derwin, commodity futures advisor for Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, Man. Although he cautioned there will be some rough patches along the way.
With Alberta’s harvest virtually wrapped up for 2025, provincial Agriculture Minister RJ Sigurdson offered the government’s congratulations to the province’s farmers.
Manitoba Agriculture issued its final crop report of 2025, showing the overall provincewide harvest at 97 per cent complete as of Oct. 20. Nearly all major crops have finished combining, with 37 per cent of Manitoba’s sunflowers finished, plus 71 per cent of grain corn and small amounts of soybeans and potatoes left to do.
Thanks to a stretch of good weather, Alberta farmers advanced their harvest 12 points during the week ended Sept. 29 to 89 per cent complete. The Alberta agriculture department said that’s seven points above the five-year average.
Combining in Saskatchewan is in the home stretch as the province’s agriculture department reported it at 84 per cent complete. Although the harvest advanced 16 points during the week ended Sept. 29, it was eight points behind the five-year average.
China is expected to import one million tonnes less of canola in 2025/26 than in the previous marketing year, the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Beijing projected. China was projected to acquire 3.10 million tonnes of canola this year versus 4.10 million in 2024/25.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada made several upward adjustments to its supply and demand estimates, after including the data from the Statistics Canada production update earlier this month.
As canola futures find some ground on the Intercontinental Exchange during the week ended Sept. 24, the Canadian oilseed’s path will soon be a steady decline. That’s the assessment from Tony Tryhuk, trader with RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.
In an unexpected move, Argentina has seriously disrupted any possible new crop soybean purchases to be made by China from the United States, said analyst Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor Inc. in Hinsdale, Ill.