The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola market tried to salvage what it can at the end of July after a sharp downturn in prices over the past week.
At this time there have yet to be any firm estimates as to what canola yields on the Canadian Prairies are most likely to be. However, once those start rolling in, the canola market will shift towards demand, according to broker Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg.
Ken Ball of Ventum Financial Corp. in Winnipeg acknowledged that while dryness and warmer temperatures would be seen as beneficial in rain-drenched fields in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, heat stress on canola crops in Alberta would be aggravated. This has led traders to become a bit more bullish on the oilseed.
The Canadian oilseed began to pull back on July 8 as it became caught up in a selloff in the global oilseed market. The November contract finished at C$658.20 per tonne on July 5, gaining more than C$31 on the week. However, by the close on July 10, that contract dropped to C$617.90.
While the November contract fell below C$600 per tonne on June 26 for the first time since late February, it has since gained more than C$50 to close at C$652.70 on July 3. Earlier that day, the contract reached C$659.70, its highest level since June 7.
Although canola futures on the International Exchange have lost a fair bit of value over the last several weeks, there is a case to be made that the Canadian oilseed is rangebound.
Bearish bets in the ICE Futures canola market hit their highest level in three months in mid-June, as speculative fund traders added to their large net short position, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Canola across most of the Prairies appeared to be in good shape during the second last week of June, with very little prospect of a major rally according to a trader.
As of June 11, 2024, the net managed money short position in canola futures came in at 99,252 contracts (1,950 long/101,202 short), which was up by roughly 30,000 contracts from the previous week.
The ICE Futures canola market fell sharply lower during the first few trading days of June, taking out several former support levels on the way down as large old crop supplies, relatively favourable new crop production prospects and speculative fund selling weighed on prices.