Look for trading of soybeans, corn and wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade remain sideways for the balance of January, perhaps longer, said Ryan Ettner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.
Prior to the January supply and demand report being released by the United States Department of Agriculture, its attachés in Argentina and Brazil issued their respective reports on oilseed production for 2025/26.
Tom Lilja, an analyst from Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., expects corn and soybeans yields to be trimmed ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand estimates release on Jan. 12, 2026.
Although there’s a debate over the size of the South American soybean crop, there’s little doubt that it will be an enormous one, said consultant Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor in Hinsdale, Ill.
The USDA is forecasting tighter U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26 due to increased exports. The supply/demand balance sheets for soybeans and wheat were unchanged.
A sharp drop in the sunflower seed crop in 2025 combined with the introduction of export duties on oilseeds will lead to a surge in domestic processing of rapeseed and soybeans, the volume of which may exceed exports, said an analyst.
As activity at the Chicago Board of Trade shifts into holiday mode through the New Year, independent analyst Terry Reilly pointed to three things to watch over the next few weeks.
Statistics Canada will release its first survey-based production estimates for the 2025/26 crop year on Dec. 4, with general expectations for upward revisions to most major crops from the model-based estimates in September. However, as StatCan has shown a tendency to underestimate production in its December reports, many analysts expect actual production may be revised upward in subsequent reports.
Chicago corn and wheat futures rose on Tuesday, lifted by worries about tensions in the Black Sea grain export region as well as cold weather slowing grain movement in the U.S. Midwest, analysts said. Soybeans were lower.
Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade climbed to their highest levels in a year-and-a-half on Nov. 18, as optimism over increasing sales to China provided support. However, more business will be needed to sustain the upward move, with traders uncertain whether the stated targets will be reached.