Last summer’s drought resulted in below-normal soil moisture and precipitation levels in most of southern Manitoba but some areas received late relief, according to a new report from the province.
Manitoba Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre released its 2021 fall conditions report on Dec. 16, stating that most of southern Manitoba received only 50 to 85 per cent of normal precipitation amounts from May 1 to Oct. 31. All Manitoba watersheds received 50 to 150 millimetres less-than-normal precipitation amounts during the same time period. Despite this, normal levels were measured along the Assiniboine River.
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In western Manitoba and the Parkland region, the precipitation between May and October historically ranked between the 20th to 40th percentile, while the rest of southern Manitoba ranked in the fifth to 20th.
However, central and southern Manitoba watersheds received some relief from the drought during the months of September and October. While western Manitoba and the Parkland regions received 50 to 85 per cent of normal precipitation levels, the Interlake and southern Manitoba both received at least 115 per cent of normal precipitation levels during the two months. However, amounts in southern Manitoba ranged within only 50 mm from average.
Soil moisture levels in the southern half of the province were normal to below normal as of Nov. 31. Using the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API), it was determined that the Interlake and Eastman regions had 50 to 85 per cent normal soil moisture, while the Red and Assiniboine River valleys had 85 to 115 per cent normal moisture. With the exception of a few localized dry areas, moisture relative to field capacity was considered optimal.
Base levels and flows in most central and southern Manitoba rivers are normal to below normal, while those in northern Manitoba are normal to above normal. As of Dec. 2, Lake Manitoba is at 810.3 feet, just 0.2 feet below its operating range, while Lake Winnipeg is at 712 feet, within its operating range.
According to Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) winter precipitation outlook released on Nov. 31, most of Manitoba and Saskatchewan will see above-normal amounts of precipitation from December 2021 to February 2022. However, the Columbia Climate School International Research Institute projects 40 per cent below-normal precipitation during the same time period.
