Cool start to the week, then mild

It looks more and more like winter will visit us during this forecast period. While things do look like they’ll get colder, it doesn’t look like we’ll see temperatures much colder than average during this forecast period — but to us so far this winter, it will feel cold!

Weather for the first part of this forecast period will be dominated by a large area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere over northeastern Canada and surface-level high pressure over central North America.

The counter-clockwise rotation around the upper low to our northeast will allow areas of high pressure to move southeast, bringing shots of cold air. The first area of high pressure is expected to dive in during the middle of the week, with a second area of high pressure expected during the latter part of the week. This second high will likely bring the coldest temperatures we’ve seen since the middle of January. Highs by Thursday or Friday will likely be around -15 to -20 C, with overnight lows in the mid -20s. The coldest air is still expected to stay to our east, which means southwestern areas will be the warmest, with northeast regions being the coldest.

Over the weekend the northeast high will weaken as the main region of high pressure slides to our southeast. This will result in our flow becoming more westerly to southwesterly, bringing in warmer temperatures, with highs by Monday approaching the 0 C mark.

Looking further ahead, the models show mild temperature and little in the way of precipitation all the way through to the last week of the month.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -18 to -3 C. Lows, -30 to -13 C.

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