Average Manitoba crop yields are expected to be lower this year due to drought, but observers expect canola to be among the hardest hit.
Some early polling results from Manitoba Canola Growers Association (MCGA) appear to bear that out.
In its Aug. 27 newsletter the MCGA reported that of the 269 farmers who responded to a Twitter request for estimates, 47.6 per cent put their canola yields in the 15- to 30-bushels-an-acre range.
Manitoba’s five- and 10-year average, crop-insured canola yields are 43.6 and 38 bushels an acre, respectively, according to Manitoba Agricultural Services Corporation figures.
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Last year’s average was 42.9.
The record, set in 2017, is 47.
The other yield estimates are as follows:
- Zero to 15 bushels an acre: 24.5 per cent;
- 30 to 45 bushels an acre: 23.4 per cent;
- 45+ bushels an acre: 4.5 per cent.
Interestingly, farmers had a slightly different take when asked to estimate average canola yields provincially. The 245 respondents expect a smaller percentage (19.2 per cent) will be in the zero- to 15-bushels-an-acre range.
However, farmers estimated province-wide 65.7 per cent would fall in the 15- to 30-bushels-an-acre range, which is higher than what farmers expect for their own farms.
Farmers are more optimistic individually about the potential for higher canola yields on their farms than provincially estimating just 13.9 and 1.2 per cent of Manitoba’s 2021 canola crop will average 30 to 45 bushels and more than 45, respectively.
“It (canola) was really hurt by the heat,” Todd Hyra, SeCan’s business manager for Western Canada, said in an interview Aug. 24. “It had a very short flowering period. It will be one of the crops that really does take it (drought and excessive heat) hard.”
The final tally won’t be known until all the canola is in the bin. Yield Manitoba 2022 will publish the results in February.
In the meantime MCGA is still collecting canola yield estimates and harvested yields. To participate in its survey go to the 2021 Canola Yield Predictions page at the MCGA website.
